Governor’s races in November are shaping up as a rare chance for Republicans to gain power.
With President Trump behind Democratic rival Joe Biden in the polls, Senate Republicans in danger of losing their majority in the November elections, and Democratic control of the House looking increasingly safe, state chief executive contests are now the best chance for GOP pickups.
Republicans are hoping to add Montana to their ledger as they look to strengthen their grip on governorships across the country this fall.
Montana is the only gubernatorial race of 11 this 2020 election cycle rated as a toss-up by nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report. RealClearPolitics, another prognosticator, labels the contest too close to call as well.
Democrats obviously want to keep the governor’s mansion. It’s being vacated by term-limited Senate candidate and former White House hopeful Steve Bullock. But three polls last month put Republican candidate Rep. Greg Gianforte ahead of Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney. The latest, a Civiqs survey, has the rivals in a statistical tie, 47% to 44%.
Should Republicans make gains in Montana on Nov. 3, Democrats will lose one of their 22 governorships. And it’s a seat Democrats have held for almost 16 years. Meanwhile, the GOP has 27 governorships, as state chief executives take the lead on localized pandemic responses and their economic fallout. They’re bracing for brewing political fights over healthcare and 2020 census redistricting too.
If Gianforte’s name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s the tech executive worth roughly $135 million who replaced ex-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke as Montana’s at-large congressman in 2017. He was convicted of assault for body-slamming a reporter on the eve of that special election. Yet he’s also a Trump ally in Montana, a state Trump won in 2016 by 20 points and where he has an average 8.4-point margin on presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Biden, at least by FiveThirtyEight’s count.
Cooney’s been Bullock’s No. 2 since 2016. That’s a boon given Bullock’s popularity and sway higher up the ticket. The governor’s political fortunes have been boosted by his handling of Montana’s coronavirus outbreak, and Cooney can fairly claim some credit. But Republicans are pulling apart Cooney’s record, seizing on the fact he’s a career politician and public servant. Cooney’s been a member of the state House of Representatives, state Senate, and administration as secretary of state and other senior civil service roles.
Democratic Governors Association spokesman David Turner was confident in his guy’s chances since Gianforte was an “out-of-state New Jersey billionaire” who’s been wobbly on public lands policy. He pointed to Gianforte spending more than $1.5 million of his own money on his campaign, while being unable to widen his lead on Cooney. As of June, Gianforte had almost $594,000 in the bank to Cooney’s $169,000.
“People are actually looking for a steady hand, who can help ride through the storm of this pandemic and get Montana out stronger on the other side. And Cooney represents that to a lot of folks,” Turner said.
Amelia Alcivar, Turner’s counterpart at the Republican Governors Association, disagreed, touting Gianforte’s business credentials and proven ability to create jobs.
“Mike Cooney has had 44 years to improve Montana’s economy, but instead he’s grown the size of government and pushed for over $850 million in tax and fee hikes on working families,” she said. “The only job Mike Cooney cares about is his own.”
Alcivar’s group has already doled out $2 million on ads, spending another $3.5 million to reserve airtime closer to the contest.
Montana is one of five key gubernatorial races to watch this season.
The others include North Carolina, which both Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics describe as leaning Democrat. Yet while the Cook Political Report refers to Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont as solidly Republican, RealClearPolitics categorizes Missouri and New Hampshire as tilting toward the GOP.
Republicans consider Montana and North Carolina as their best pick-up prospects. Democrats feel the same way about Missouri and New Hampshire.
Like Montana, the North Carolina matchup between Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest has been influenced by COVID-19.
Cooper became a Trump political foil after the governor refused to guarantee that the city of Charlotte could host a traditional, arena-style convention amid virus-related crowd restrictions. The former North Carolina attorney general’s in front of Forest by an average of 10.2 points, while Biden is just ahead of Trump at the presidential level, per RealClearPolitics.
Cooper was elevated to the governor’s mansion in 2016. That season he became the first challenger to oust a sitting North Carolina chief executive since 1980, beating Republican Gov. Pat McCrory by 0.2% of the vote or 10,000 ballots. Forest, a trained architect and an ex-state lawmaker’s son, is attempting to recreate history against Cooper, who’s been significantly handicapped by his old colleagues in the GOP-controlled legislature.
For Turner, Florida’s canning of the Republican convention’s Jacksonville festivities was an example of Cooper’s leadership at this uncertain time. Cooper has an advantage in the cash race too, with $14 million in his coffers at the end of June to Forest’s $2 million.
“It’s pretty clear that that was the obvious and right decision, and North Carolinians agree with him on this,” he said. “Forest has been on TV for the last few weeks. He’s now off, which is rare for a candidate to go dark at any point.”
Alcivar downplayed the convention’s importance, saying Cooper had “trouble with transparency” even before the virus crisis.
“And his uneven and inconsistent response has failed North Carolina’s most vulnerable citizens,” she said. “Voters are looking for a new direction, and Dan Forest is a compelling candidate who can move the state forward toward greater opportunity and prosperity.”
Elsewhere on the map, Missouri Republican Gov. Mike Parson is the incumbent who succeeded disgraced Gov. Eric Greitens and is seeking his first full-term. He’s leading Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway by an average of 6.3 points. Galloway, the sole statewide-elected Democrat, faces an experience test against Parson. Parson is an Army veteran, former sheriff, statehouse alumni, and ex-lieutenant governor.
Third-term New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu won’t know whether his opponent will be Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes or Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky until after their Sept. 8 primary. But he trounces both competitors in the polls by 40 points in multiple surveys. Not being complacent, the RGA has $3 million in TV and radio ads pre-booked for later in the year to ensure they’ll have the air to back Sununu as Biden tries to capitalize on his popularity in the swing state.
