Sen. Barack Obama comes to Manassas today holding a shrinking but still considerable lead in state polls, aided by a ground effort widely acknowledged as superior and a broad anti-Republican tide that leaves the Old Dominion tilting in his favor.
And Obama strategists believe that if the Illinois Democrat can take Virginia’s 13 electoral votes away from the GOP, it will make it next to impossible for Sen. John McCain to win enough states to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.
The Republican Party has been playing catch-up in resources and manpower in Virginia. Obama hasn’t fallen behind McCain in a poll of commonwealth voters since the beginning of October. An estimated 436,000 new registrants this year, who tipped Virginia’s voter base past 5 million, are disproportionately young people expected to favor the Illinois Democrat.
But political observers expect the race to continue to tighten until Election Day.
“You have a state where the Republican [presidential candidate] last time won by a margin of 262,000 votes, 8 percentage points,” said University of Richmond political science professor Dan Palazzolo. “It takes a significant effort to close that gap. That’s why I always have said the race is going to be close.”
A Survey USA poll of Virginia voters conducted from Thursday to Saturday showed Obama with a 4-point lead over McCain. Obama led 50 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent undecided. A survey from the same pollster conducted Oct. 24 and 25 showed Obama leading by 9 points.
Virginia hasn’t cast its electoral votes for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won all but six states. With so much Democratic organization and enthusiasm, Palazzolo said the Republicans’ chances of keeping the state from turning blue will depend on their turnout effort in the last 72 hours of the race.
“The question is whether or not the Republicans have enough resources and enough enthusiasm really to go out this weekend and push hard and get the Republican base out,” Palazzolo said.
Thousands of voters still say they haven’t decided whom to vote for. With undecided voters historically voting against the incumbent, the open race this year raises the question of which candidate more closely fits that description.
Some argue McCain, with his ties to the Bush administration, is the closest thing to an incumbent, said Virginia Tech political communication professor Robert Denton. But he said the lingering number of voters who haven’t made up their minds may reflect on Obama, as well.
“People have said from the beginning that the first decision in this election is Obama, and Obama has not been able to close the deal — he’s still 49 to 50 percent — and so some say, actually, the undecideds are saying as much about Obama as they are about McCain.”
