The U.S. effort to coordinate airstrikes with Russia against al Qaeda-linked rebels and Islamic State targets Syria isn’t likely to happen, according to Defense Secretary Ash Carter.
“That’s not in the cards at the moment,” Carter told NPR in an interview broadcast Wednesday morning.
Under the American proposal, the United States and Russia would set up a joint coordination center in Jordan, where they would share intelligence, and “synchronize” air strikes against the al-Nusra front, an offshoot of al Qaeda, which has been battling the regime of Bashar Assad. In return, Russia would use its influence with Assad to ground his air force and end attacks against rebel forces supported by the U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry discussed the plan with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Friday, and on Monday reported that he made some progress.
Speaking in Brussels, Kerry said he discussed “specific sequential steps” the U.S. and and Russia have agreed to take. The goal would be to “to restore a cessation of hostilities and halt the indiscriminate bombing of the Assad regime and to step up efforts against al-Nusra and to create space for a genuine and credible political transition,” he said.
But in the NPR interview, Carter downplayed prospects for an agreement. “What we’re discussing with the Russians is the possibility, which still only remains a possibility, that they will begin to do, in fact, what they said they were going to do when they first intervened in Syria,” Carter said.
“What they said they were going to do was promote a transition away from Assad, and therefore toward the end of the civil war which started this whole thing,” he added. “Then they said they were going to fight the terrorists, but that’s not what they’ve done. They’ve instead propped up Assad in fighting the moderate opposition.”
The idea of coordinating with the Russians and sharing intelligence is strongly opposed by many in the Pentagon and the intelligence community who believe Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t be trusted, and would exploit the agreement to further Russia’s aim of keeping Assad in power.
White House Counter-Islamic State envoy Brett McGurk told reporters in a State Department conference call Tuesday that Kerry’s talks with the Russian were “fairly productive,” and that there is an agreement on a series of steps that, he said, if taken could lead to “a better situation” in Syria.
But even McGurk conceded that “the jury, of course, is very much out on that. There are things the Russians have to do that they’ve agreed to do … but we have to see.”
The U.S. proposal would also coordinate strikes against Islamic State fighters in Syria, but the primary objective would be to break what U.S. officials call a “cycle of violence,” in which al-Nusra, which is not covered or bound by the cessation of hostilities agreement negotiated in February, launches attacks the Syrian regime, which prompts the regime to retaliate. The U.S. has labeled Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, a terrorist group.
Kerry did not sound as pessimistic after his meetings in Moscow. “The homework that needed to be done is being done right now as I speak, and this week there will be further meetings. And I anticipate as we are ready, we will announce further steps as we go forward.”
