Apprehension among critical GOP constituencies and a penchant for split-ticket voting during the midterm elections helped wither away the expected red wave, a Republican research firm found.
Despite a favorable political environment, “tactical missteps” helped to dissuade voters from rallying behind all the GOP candidates, prompting roughly 31% of traditional Republican voters to split the ticket compared to 25% of Democratic voters, as many of them were “generally more dissatisfied with their party’s nominees,” a WPA Research poll concluded.
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“President Joe Biden and the Democrats’ woke agenda were, and remain, unpopular, but a series of tactical missteps by GOP campaigns, candidate quality issues, concerns over abortion in key races, and a focus on the past rather than the future of the Republican Party contributed to the GOP’s disappointing performance in the midterms,” Amanda Iovino, a principal at WPA, surmised.
Split-ticket voting was apparent in some races. For instance, in Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp won handily, while Senate Republican hopeful Herschel Walker lagged behind his rival and was dragged into a runoff.
While 41% of Democratic-leaning voters quickly made up their minds on who to vote for during the summer before Election Day, 35% of Republicans did so, per the poll. The survey was conducted between Nov. 18 and Nov. 22 nationally among 1,160 registered voters, and its margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Echoing other analyses, WPA found that abortion, candidate quality concerns, and attention on former President Donald Trump likely fueled the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.
For example, 88% of voters who opted for Democrats pegged “Stopping MAGA Extremists” as a key factor in their decision, and 88% of Democrats and 60% of independents named abortion as a key factor in their vote, per the poll.
Heading into the election, some Republicans hoped that the Mar-a-Lago raid in August may have excited the Republican base, but the poll found evidence it was likely more of a boost to Democrats than Republicans.
Top issues for voters, such as the economy, inflation, and crime, appeared to bode well for the GOP, but were ultimately hindered by those other factors. Additionally, historical trends and lackluster approval ratings for President Joe Biden had fueled Republican hopes of a wave in the run-up to election night.
“Americans are generally more aligned with Republicans’ policy priorities, but controversies surrounding President Trump and missed messaging opportunities turned off many GOP voters, independents, and split-ticket voters who may have otherwise backed Republicans,” Iovino said.
Some in the GOP have suggested moving on from Trump, who announced his 2024 campaign last month. Prominent voices and potential 2024 contenders such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Vice President Mike Pence have raised questions about Trump’s political viability.
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Trump remains well liked within the party, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s net favorability has topped him among Republicans 66 to 44, per WPA. DeSantis has not announced his plans to run in 2024.
Ultimately, Republicans managed to flip the House, winning 222 seats, below expectations. They also fell short of winning with Senate, with one race in Georgia left outstanding.
