House Republicans’ lackluster gains in the midterm elections may have changed the dynamics of their leadership elections, with some GOP lawmakers arguing that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) path to the speakership may have gotten slightly rockier and the race to become the next whip more uncertain due to the projected red wave looking like more of a splash.
While McCarthy, who is currently running uncontested for the position, has publicly touted their expected gains, asserting to his conference that flipping the majority is “no small feat,” the California Republican called members on Tuesday morning in an effort to “shore up his base” and ease concerns as he looks to secure the speaker’s gavel, according to one senior source familiar with the conversation.
With Republicans looking at a slimmer-than-expected majority, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is looking to flex its muscle, with the group looking for concessions from McCarthy in exchange for votes. The lawmakers are weighing putting up a challenger in an effort to push for rules changes, including easing the process to vacate the chair — allowing members to more easily oust a sitting speaker. The group is also looking for reforms to the powerful Steering Committee, which is tasked with choosing who sits on and leads committees and pushing for a more bottom-up approach to the legislative process by allowing for more amendments.
And conservative outside groups are backing the push, with Freedom Works President Adam Brandon wishing McCarthy the “best of luck in his bid to be the next Speaker of the House” in a statement before asserting that “we believe it is imperative for McCarthy to work with the House Freedom Caucus to restore the House Rules that were in place during the 115th Congress.
“These include, among other things, the Motion to Vacate the Chair, which serves as a check on the Speaker, requiring legislation to be made available for 72 hours before it is voted on, and eliminating the ability to automatically suspend the debt ceiling without a standalone vote when the House adopts a budget resolution,” the statement continued.
And Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a McCarthy critic, has been making calls to members advocating against him for the role, according to two people familiar with the conversations.
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While McCarthy faces hurdles, four GOP lawmakers said they feel confident that he secured the position, with two sources stating the bigger question is how long he retains the role.
“I still think Kevin has the inside track to become a speaker, but how long he lasts in that role is gonna be the question given a very, very small majority and the fact that Kevin is going to have to work with the other side if you want to get anything done,” one senior GOP member said.
Multiple lawmakers added that they believe top lawmakers’, including McCarthy’s, decision to lean into former President Donald Trump may have been a significant factor in the lack of significant gains for House Republicans and feel the California Republican should distance himself from the former president.
“We have jeopardized control of the Senate the second time now because of Trump. First time was last cycle in Georgia and the runoff where he told nobody to show up. And then we lost more seats. And then this time, we lost seats because of him, and I think the voters at least subtly are rejecting his conduct. And I do think that [Florida GOP Gov. Ron] DeSantis has a huge opportunity — he won in a landslide that you just don’t see in Florida. And for me, that is going to be a harbinger of things to come,” the lawmaker added.
Another lawmaker expressed similar sentiments on Trump, arguing it’s time for the party to move in a new direction.
“It’s sort of any television show. Eventually, the series runs out, and I think a new series was just picked up in Florida,” that lawmaker said.
One former leadership aide called the midterm results “disappointing but not devastating.”
“Voters did this year what they did in 2020, which is tell the world they are done with Trump,” the former aide said. “He isn’t motivating the base in lockstep anymore, and that will create room for DeSantis or somebody else. For the House, I still see this as McCarthy’s time to be speaker. He recruited, fundraisers, and fought for every member and candidate.”
The other major leadership fight
Multiple lawmakers said the race to become the next majority whip — which is a heated three-way battle between National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer (R-MN), Chief Deputy Whip Drew Ferguson (R-GA), and Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Banks (R-IN) — was also further complicated by the midterm results.
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Emmer confirmed to reporters on Wednesday that he is seeking the position and defended the NRCC performance on Election Day, noting that it is the second cycle in a row Republicans have gained seats.
“In the last 68 years, Republicans have only retaken the majority three times. That’s something we are all very proud of,” he said.
Proponents for Emmer argued that he delivered a majority, albeit a slimmer one than expected, and deserves to be rewarded for his efforts.
“Emmer is solid — wins ballot one,” a third senior lawmaker told the Washington Examiner, referring to the first round of the closed-door vote expected next week, adding that “McCarthy is in good shape” to become speaker.
But other senior Republicans argue that the underperformance in numbers hinders his ability to lock down votes for the leadership role.
“I do think that there’s consequences for Emmer — his pitch is severely diminished,” another GOP member said.
Multiple sources noted that Banks having people connected to Trump go to bat for him is likely to give him a boost with conservatives, and his close relationship with McCarthy could give him an advantage, but some argued that it could hurt him with moderates.
And others argued Ferguson could be in a better position in the whip race following the fight involving Banks and Emmer spilling into public view in recent weeks. Donald Trump Jr. and other high-profile figures close to Trump’s circle took aim at Emmer over accusations his team was responsible for a negative anonymous quote about Buckley Carlson, Banks’s communications director and the son of Fox News host Tucker Carlson, in a recent news article.
“As for the whip race, I think Drew [Ferguson] benefits. Banks/Trumpworld didn’t have a good night,” one senior Republican staffer told the Washington Examiner, contending that Emmer is hurt by running a shadow campaign for whip while failing to deliver big GOP wins.
“I don’t see how [Emmer] makes a single phone call and asks for support in any leadership race with a straight face,” they added.
House Republicans are slated to hold their internal closed-ballot leadership elections next week, with the official vote for speaker slated to take place in January.
