Republicans are heading into the homestretch of the midterm election campaign with a slate handpicked by former President Donald Trump. Democrats couldn’t be happier.
Trump-endorsed candidates fell short in some key GOP primaries. But from coast to coast, in general-election contests for the House, Senate, and governorship, the former president’s allies are carrying the Republican banner. Less than three months before Election Day, trouble abounds. Democrats have staked leads in Senate and governor’s races in key swing states, with some Republican nominees plagued by weak campaign operations aside from whatever challenges they face with voters.
“We are just beginning to communicate about the deep flaws that their roster of candidates brings to these races,” said David Bergstein, the spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “Their personal and political vulnerabilities are going to continue to be a centerpiece of these Senate campaigns in the months ahead.”
“We have great candidates running across the country who are well-positioned to beat fatally flawed Democrats who’ve supported a historically unpopular president 100% of the time,” countered Chris Hartline, the spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, referring to President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings.
“Despite the bed wetting from D.C. pundits who haven’t set foot outside of Washington in the last decade, Republican candidates are getting out, talking to voters, and presenting a strong contrast with Democrats and their agenda that’s hurting families across the country,” Hartline said.
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However, in Georgia and Ohio, Republican Senate nominees Herschel Walker and J.D. Vance, respectively, have clearly experienced early stumbles. Walker has trailed Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in surveys amid questions about his readiness to serve in Congress. Vance is being significantly outraised by Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), sparking doubts about what Republicans assumed would be an easy win in a state Trump won easily — twice.
Meanwhile, Republican insiders are especially concerned about Arizona and Pennsylvania.
They worry tickets led by gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Senate nominee Blake Masters in the Grand Canyon State and, in the Keystone State, gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano and Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz, could fall to the Democrats on Nov. 8 — tanking four winnable races. Lake and Masters, at least, are showing signs of competitiveness in their respective bids against Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ).
But in Pennsylvania, Mastriano and Oz have yet to break through versus state Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Republicans are holding out hope that Oz, a dynamic candidate, might yet outtake Fetterman, who has been absent from the campaign trail while recovering from a stroke suffered in May. They view Mastriano as completely hopeless.
“It’s a mixed bag,” said a veteran Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “The biggest problem he has created in primaries is that his focus on 2020 has no messaging upside, and the kabuki theater that he demands for the pursuit of his endorsement, or nonendorsement, is a massive time and energy suck on every primary campaign.”
Trump added to his army of endorsed 2022 candidates this week when Tim Michels won the Republican nomination for governor in Wisconsin and Joe Kent was declared the winner over Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) in Washington state’s 3rd Congressional District. In doing so, Kent ousted a Republican who voted to impeach the former president in the waning days of his administration for his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, ransacking of the Capitol.
The downside of the “mixed bag” of Trump’s slate of general-election candidates is glaring.
They include Republican nominees for governor in blue states such as Illinois (Darren Bailey) and Maryland (Dan Cox), picked because they are vocal proponents of Trump’s unsupported stolen election claims. Even with Biden’s low ratings and a political environment that favors the GOP, these nominees have virtually no chance of finishing on top in November.
Trump backed them anyway over centrist Republicans who would have given the GOP a fighting chance to pull off some upset victories.
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However, in a few targeted contests, Trump picked Republicans who also enjoyed the backing of the party’s establishment and are viewed as the strongest possible candidates. Among them are Michels; Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor in Michigan; and Adam Laxalt, the Republican nominee for Senate in Nevada. And, of course, in Missouri, Trump declined to back disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens — to the relief of nervous GOP insiders everywhere. Instead, he endorsed “Eric,” which was also the name of his competitor.
Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the GOP Senate nod and is practically a shoo-in this fall. Only Greitens, who made a strong play for Trump’s backing by supporting his stolen election claims and vowing to oppose Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), could have made the Democrats competitive in Missouri in the fall.
