Tensions over trade flared inside the Republican Party on Monday as members of Congress fretted that President Trump would spoil the robust economy responsible for the party’s improving midterm prospects with onerous tariffs on imported raw materials.
[Related: Big business CEOs fret that Trump’s tariffs could harm economic expansion]
Republicans concede that grassroots conservatives are confident in Trump, willing to give him room to negotiate better terms for American exports with key trading partners. But decades of fidelity to free trade, plus faith in the tax overhaul they enacted late last year, has most Republicans uneasy — convinced Trump’s hardball tactics could end in economic and political disaster.
“We’ve got a tremendous economic story to be told right now,” Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., the No. 3 ranking Senate Republican, told the Washington Examiner. “The tariff issue has the potential to step on that.”
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, has aggressively made that argument in conversations with top economic officials inside the administration. But the Texas Republican indicated in interviews with reporters that his pleas not to mess with a growing economy with a historically low 3.8 percent unemployment rate are being ignored.
“This is part of an ongoing conversation that many of us have had with the president for some time now,” Cornyn said. The No. 2 ranking Republican described Trump’s White House trade czar, Peter Navarro, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Bob Lighthizer, as “oblivious” to the risks a trade war presents to jobs and economic growth.
“That’s part of the challenge,” Cornyn said.
Trump is moving ahead with steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, targeting not just bad actors like China but also stalwart allies like Canada, Mexico, the European Union countries, and possibly Japan. The president has said he’ll stand down if they reduce tariffs on U.S. goods and pledge to import more American goods.
Elements of the Republican coalition are horrified.
The Koch brothers network is pledging millions for an advertising and grassroots campaign that amounts to a warning shot at Republicans to stand up to Trump on trade. The president has the upper hand, however, as Republican voters, largely calm — at least for now — are willing to give him an opportunity to deliver a major campaign promise.
“Many Kansans give the president some leeway here. They believe he’s a negotiator, businessperson — that he’s got a strategy,” said Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., who represents a state with a strong agriculture industry that could suffer in a trade war. “Having said that, they know the consequences. There’s a high price to pay if it doesn’t turn out well.”
Trump in a series of tweets has promised victory in trade talks, contending there is no downside to tariffs. “The U.S. has made such bad trade deals over so many years we can only WIN!” he said Monday on Twitter.
Republicans are on edge about the midterm, worried that Trump’s low job approval ratings could sweep Democrats into power in November.
[Related: Senate Republican midterm alarm over ‘white hot’ Democrat fundraising]
Their spirits are higher lately, however. Accelerating job growth and voters’ optimism about the economy has coincided with higher poll numbers for congressional Republicans, and rising chances their majorities will hold. In the Senate, where the GOP has a favorable map of seats to contest, the party could actually gain seats.
That has contributed to Senate Republicans’ suspicion of Trump’s moves on trade, wondering why he chose to go ahead after the success of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, just five months before Election Day. Republican strategists, though concerned as well, say the fear simply isn’t registering with GOP voters.
To begin with, there is no longer a free-trade consensus inside the party, with a fresh distrust of multilateral agreements like the North American Free Trade Agreement taking hold. Many Republicans favor Trump’s muscular approach to renegotiating trade deals. They agree with his claim that the U.S. has been pushed around for too long, and want a recalibration.
Additionally, there are few targeted races where free trade ranks as a motivating issue. In the suburban districts that could decide control of the House, trade isn’t a top issue, although voters there tend to support free trade and Republican incumbents in those seats are sure to make clear they differ with Trump on trade.
In some regions Trump’s “fair trade” message will prove quite popular.
All of this comes with a big caveat, say Republican strategists and elected officials who acknowledge the receptivity of Trump’s trade message in grassroots circles. And that is, that the president is right when he insists that Americans won’t suffer under his trade policies. If a trade war escalates and jobs are lost, Republicans will get blamed.
“We have to see what the tariffs do and what they’re about. There are winners and losers in all of this, always,” Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., said. “We don’t want, overall, our economy to be a loser.”
