As Tropical Storm Ian intensifies and makes its way toward the United States, the National Hurricane Center is advising that the future strength and path of the storm remains uncertain — in fact, more so than usual.
The warning comes as Ian is expected to reach hurricane status as early as Sunday before it threatens landfall over Florida or other parts of the Gulf Coast sometime mid- to late next week. It also underscores the challenge forecasters face as they track storms days in advance, with different computer models often showing changes with every read.
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“Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. discussion post.
“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast,” the agency added.
Here are the 11am EDT Sunday 25 Sep Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Ian.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of western Cuba.
Latest Advisory: https://t.co/tnOTyfOjMY pic.twitter.com/kQVDbE5768
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 25, 2022
Two to as much as 6 inches of rainfall may stretch from southern Florida all the way up to the panhandle.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) declared a state of emergency for his state on Saturday, a move his office said frees up emergency protective funding and activates members of the Florida National Guard. With the projected track of the storm generally moving west over the past few days, forecasters are also warning states such as Alabama to be on their guard.
Ian is forecast to strengthen rapidly on Sunday and is expected to first swipe the Cayman Islands and Cuba before making a beeline for the U.S. Ian is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said. Although the forecast predicts some weakening by midweek, before the anticipated time of landfall, Ian is “likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle,” the NHC post said.
Major hurricanes are those Category 3 and above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, bringing with them the potential for catastrophic damage that will damage buildings, cause trees to fall, and knock out power for days if not weeks.
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With so much focus on maps as the storm approaches, the National Weather Service is also urging people not to put too much focus on what is known as the “cone of uncertainty,” which provides a sometimes dramatic look at where the center of a hurricane could move in the future.
With a lot of focus on the cone of uncertainty, we wanted to make sure everyone understands what the cone does and does not represent. #flwx pic.twitter.com/xQHoz1LEtL
— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) September 25, 2022
Part of its warning was to assert that the effects of such a storm can be felt far beyond the confines of the cone.
