Early voting is underway in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming. Television time slots are reserved for final campaign ads.
And 36 days out from the 2022 midterm elections, the number of House and Senate races that could go either way is shrinking. All the while, the stakes couldn’t be higher nearly two years into President Joe Biden’s term.
Both parties are trying to win an outright Senate majority in a chamber that’s been divided 50-50 from the day Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were inaugurated (her tiebreaking vote gives Democrats control). Republicans, however, only need to net about five seats in the 435-member House, a task most political handicappers favor them to achieve.
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But nothing is certain just over five weeks out from Election Day. Here are five races that will likely determine who wins majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Georgia. Both parties can claim momentum and spout reasons for optimism in this Senate race.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is seeking a full six-year Senate term after winning a Jan. 5, 2021, special election runoff over an appointed Republican incumbent. The election of Warnock and fellow Georgia Senate candidate Jon Ossoff gave Senate Democrats their first majority in more than six years.
The 2022 race has Warnock running against another black candidate, Republican nominee Herschel Walker. The former University of Georgia football star, who has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, has largely run an under-the-radar campaign, eschewing interviews with journalists in favor of campaign rallies and commercials.
That may or may not be enough in tightly contested Georgia. The Peach State, long a Republican redoubt, is undoubtedly a shade of purple now. Biden, after all, became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Georgia since President Bill Clinton in 1992.
Still, Republicans control statewide offices and the legislature, and the state GOP has a formidable turnout operation. This leaves the Senate race as a pure toss-up — one that may again be decided in a runoff, which would happen if neither Warnock nor Walker wins at least 50%. Candidates from the Libertarian and Socialist Workers parties also are on the Georgia Senate ballot.
Pennsylvania Senate. It’s not exactly going out on a limb to call the Keystone State a “must-win” for both parties — but it’s true. Pennsylvania has emerged as a premier swing state in recent years, with Trump in 2016 breaking the Democrats’ streak of six straight wins in Pennsylvania in presidential elections. President Joe Biden, a Scranton native, snatched Pennsylvania back for Democrats in 2020.
The Senate seat is open due to the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Both major party nominees are unconventional in their own ways. Television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican standard-bearer, is a first-time candidate whose gaffes have haunted his efforts. Oz does have Trump’s endorsement, which may explain tightening polls against Democratic nominee John Fetterman, with Republican voters coming home politically as Election Day approaches.
Fetterman has been the state’s lieutenant governor since 2019, and before that, he was the mayor of the tiny western Pennsylvania city of Braddock (population 1,721, per the 2020 census). The 6-foot-8 statewide elected official cuts an unorthodox figure, proudly sporting tattoos and favoring cargo shorts over a conventional suit and tie.
Fetterman enjoyed a wide lead in polls through early September. But the race has tightened significantly, and both parties are going all-out in Pennsylvania, seeing it as a key part of their Senate majority puzzles.
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District. Rep. David Schweikert has had an up-and-down congressional career — one he hopes to extend. First elected in 2010 as part of the Republican Tea Party wave that flipped House control with a gain of 63 seats, Schweikert at the time became a regular cable news talking head promoting fiscal responsibility and the need to slash federal deficits and the national debt.
Schweikert’s political prowess grew after the 2012 election cycle. In the all-important Republican primary for the current 6th Congressional District, covering the prosperous northeastern Phoenix suburbs, including Scottsdale and Paradise Valley — where, according to the 2010 census (the last one available), the median income was $150,228 — Schweikert beat fellow GOP House freshman Ben Quayle, son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, and cruised to victory in November.
Schweikert’s political fortunes turned somewhat, though, later in the decade. In 2018, the House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into Schweikert over alleged misuse of funds. On July 30, 2020, Schweikert admitted to 11 violation counts and agreed to a House reprimand and a $50,000 fine. The Ethics Committee had found, among other things, undisclosed loans and campaign contributions, misuse of campaign contributions for personal expenses, and improper spending by his office. The ethics panel also said Schweikert had not been fully cooperative with its investigation.
Now, Schweikert is seeking reelection in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, redrawn by the Grand Canyon State’s independent redistricting commission. The district spans northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale but is hardly a shoo-in for Republicans. In 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump in the 1st Congressional District 50.1% to 48.6%.
The Democratic nominee is Jevin Hodge, a communications consultant and Democratic activist. Hodge has focused on slamming Schweikert over anti-abortion votes and public policy issues. Outside liberal groups, meanwhile, are hitting Schweikert hard over his House reprimand for ethics violations.
California’s 45th Congressional District. Straddling Orange and Los Angeles counties, this newly drawn district has a plurality of Asian Americans. In the 2020 presidential race, Biden would have beaten Trump 52.1% to 46%. That sounds like a significant advantage for Democrats, but Republicans retain some residual party loyalty in the Orange County portion of the district, going back to the area’s reign as one of the most conservative areas in the nation.
Also, a Republican incumbent, Rep. Michelle Steel, is running for the seat after her longtime Seal Beach home got moved into a new, neighboring district, where Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is favored for reelection.
Steel is a former member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. In the 45th Congressional District race, Steel faces Jay Chen, a local businessman and community college trustee who is a lieutenant commander in the U.S. Naval Reserve and was deployed to the Middle East in 2020.
The race has turned ugly, with accusations of racist comments and “red-baiting” mailers. Over the summer, Steel, who emigrated from South Korea, accused Chen of mocking her accent when he said, “You kind of need an interpreter to figure out exactly what she’s saying.” Chen said he was referring to a written transcript of her town hall and her convoluted policy positions.
Steel recently sent a mailer to Vietnamese American voters in Orange County portraying Chen, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, as a communist sympathizer — because a decade ago, on the Hacienda La Puente school board, Chen voted to adopt a free Chinese-language program offered by the Chinese government.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District. Rep. Matt Cartwright is hoping the fourth time’s the charm — that is, winning a House district that favored Trump going back to 2016. With Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) retiring at the end of this term, Cartwright, if he can win this fall, would be the only House Democrat to hold on four times during the Trump era.
The newly drawn 8th Congressional District covers the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area and northeastern Pennsylvania. Under the new district lines, voters there would have backed Trump over Biden 50.9% to 48%.
Both parties are going hard after the seat. For the Biden White House, it’s not particularly surprising. After all, Scranton, Pennsylvania, is the president’s birthplace and a city he refers to often to tout his working-class bona fides. Biden visited Scranton on Aug. 11 to sign legislation into law to help retired Marines sickened from drinking contaminated water while training at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina — a provision written by Cartwright, who stood by the president’s side during the hometown ceremony.
On Sept. 1, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) came to Scranton to tout Republican Jim Bognet’s candidacy — and blast Biden’s policies.
McCarthy is likely to become House speaker if Republicans win the majority in November. At the Scranton event, he criticized the Biden administration for sending stimulus checks to violent criminals and for past COVID-19 restrictions, among other critiques.
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Democrats have raised questions about Bognet’s political consulting work, with outside groups running ads calling him a “Washington insider.” Bognet counters that he’s a local boy made good, living in the House district where he grew up, including being in the first graduating class at Hazleton Area High School.
Bognet’s LinkedIn page is vague on what kind of political work he’s done. His Hazleton, Pennsylvania-based company, JRB Strategies, “offers political, communications, public affairs, crisis communications and strategic counsel to major corporations, political campaigns, officeholders, start-ups, and emerging growth companies,” the social media site says.
