Was it really only a few months ago when President Obama seemed suddenly to have matured into an authentic national leader by virtue of his steely decision-making in the hours leading up to the Navy SEAL raid that took out Osama bin Laden? At what will likely be viewed as the high point of his presidency, Obama looked like, if not quite a shoo-in, certainly a formidable candidate for a second term. But then came the debt ceiling crisis and Obama’s desultory performance as a negotiator with congressional Republicans, capped by a television address so narrowly partisan that it repulsed more than a few of his most devoted admirers.
Now, as nine Republican presidential aspirants prepare to meet onstage in Thursday night’s Fox News/Washington Examiner debate, Rush Limbaugh calls Obama the “debt man walking” and the president’s approval rating has sunk to a new low. In view of these developments, Republicans can be forgiven for displaying a new spring in their step because Obama looks, in the telling words of Fox News online political editor and former Examiner politics editor Chris Stirewalt, “eminently beatable.”
Even so, the eager GOP challengers who face off in a debate two days before the Ames straw poll must not forget that unexpected events may yet transform today’s bruised and battered Obama into the guy taking the oath of office on Inauguration Day in 2013. Doubters should consult that great Republican president, Tom Dewey, about unexpected reversals.
That said, thanks to the tumultuous events of the past month, the Ames debate is the first truly consequential gathering of the 2012 presidential campaign (South Carolina’s May 5 match was more like a spring training baseball game). As such, it is a make-or-break opportunity for most of the candidates onstage, especially former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has put tremendous time and resources into Iowa. A poor performance Thursday night could be a crippling blow to a candidacy that has yet to find a defining voice.
Similarly, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman must somehow find a way to make Iowa Republicans take serious notice. And Rep. Ron Paul of Texas needs to get his message across effectively to Iowans who don’t share the more novel enthusiasms of his core followers.
Then there are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and upstart challenger Rep. Michele Bachmann, now first and second in the polls. Romney has the most to lose but is perhaps least likely to do so, being a highly polished performer who benefits from the GOP’s odd inclination to hand its presidential nominations to candidates because “it’s their turn.” For her part, Bachmann’s biggest worry won’t even be on the stage. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is a savvy campaigner with solid credentials among economic and social conservatives, years of executive experience, and a booming state economy brimming with new jobs. Old hands doubt that Bachmann can counter Perry’s appeal among GOP conservatives. In other words, what happens tonight in Ames matters immensely. Republicans owe it to themselves and to America to get this decision right.
