Already confident about their chances of capturing the House in 2018, Democrats received an unexpected boost Wednesday when Speaker Paul Ryan announced his retirement.
Many members expected Ryan to retire at the end of his term, but the timing of his announcement took Washington by surprise, and Democrats see it as a sign that Republicans are abandoning ship rather than face voters.
“It’s very difficult not to read into this seismic event: You’ve got a sitting speaker who has been there only three years, he’s 48,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va. “And he’s weary of the fight, and I think quite dubious about the prospects in November of remaining speaker because he won’t have the majority.”
Ryan’s decision to announce his exit “halfway through the year,” Connolly said, “boosts Democratic morale.”
“It helps fundraising, and it energizes volunteers and the base,” he continued. “On every level, it is an assist, a boost for Democrats.”
Though the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wanted to use Ryan as a bogeyman the way Republicans have repeatedly used House Minority Nancy Pelosi and her “San Francisco values” to sway voters, they cheered the news of his eminent departure.
“Unfortunately, for the many vulnerable House Republicans that Paul Ryan is abandoning, his historically unpopular and failed policies will hang over their reelections like a dark cloud,” said DCCC spokesman Tyler Law.
“They know it’s going to be rough around here in the fall,” said Rep. Keith Ellison, vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee.
The Democrats’ potential to take back the House, Ryan said, had nothing to do with his departure, waving off the idea that his exit will hurt Republicans in November.
“I really don’t think a person’s race for Congress is going to hinge on whether Paul Ryan is speaker or not,” Ryan said when announcing his retirement Wednesday morning.
Ian Russell, Democratic strategist and former Midwest political director for DCCC, said Ryan “surrendered” to Trump.
“It is a recognition of the fact that this is not Paul Ryan’s party, this is Donald Trump’s party,” Russell said. “Trump has now finished coalescing his power as the undisputed head of the modern Republican party.”
Ryan’s retirement also improved Democrats’ chances of flipping his seat in Wisconsin. Shortly after Ryan announced he would not seek re-election, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed the rating of Ryan’s Wisconsin district to “toss up.” The Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Democrats need 24 seats to win the House majority, and according to the Cook Political Report, 21 GOP-held seats are in the “toss up” category, and eight GOP-held seats are either leaning Democratic or likely Democratic.
Still, Ellison cautioned, the blue wave is not a sure thing.
“It’s just all grinding, it’s just all talking to one more voter, engaging one more person, knocking on one more door, making one more call, doing one more community meeting,” he said. “It’s just hard work and anybody who wants to escape that is fooling themselves.”
