Over the past few months of the election cycle, we’ve heard a number of narratives about what was going on. Let’s check in on how they played out, shall we?
An anti-incumbent wave
Sure, the Democratic establishment sustained significant losses – but it certainly wasn’t a tidal wave. So far, 59 House incumbents have lost their races out of 435 total (15 percent), while only 2 Senate incumbents have out of 37 races (8 percent). To be fair, we’re still waiting on results from Colorado, Alaska, and Washington, but that’s not the bloodbath that was predicted.
Year of the Republican woman
Sure, there might have been more Republican women candidates who entered primaries, but many of them didn’t make it to the big dance – and of those who did, the ladies in red weren’t unanimously victorious. High-profile losses include Senate candidates Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, and Carly Fiorina, as well as gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman. Wins included gubernatorial candidates Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, and Mary Fallin – and Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte – but that’s hardly the meme we were beaten over the head with.
Year of the woman, period
There were, indeed, a few pickups by women – including Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI), Renee Ellmers (R-NC), and many women held their seats, such as Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (D-WA), and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL). In other cases, women replaced women, like in South Dakota (Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin losing to Kristi Noem).
But on top of the Republican losses mentioned above, let’s not forget the Democrat losses of Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO), Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), as well as Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). It’s pretty clear that as a category, “women” did not sweep.
It’s also important to note, however, that women didn’t campaign, win, or lose based on their gender, but on their issues and the strength of their candidacy. In my opinion, that’s a victory for gender equality – although I’m sure many would beg to differ.
Tea party candidates surging
Rand Paul may have won, but overall the movement’s darlings didn’t conquer the Republican Party. Colorado and Alaska’s Senate seats may take weeks to decide; however, other notable candidates who lost quite handily include Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle. Tea party backed candidates (whatever that means, since it’s a decentralized movement) did win a number of seats, but most of those were safe to begin with – such as Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) and Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC).
Sarah Palin’s golden touch
Sarah Palin endorsed 77 candidates across the country. As the Daily Beast’s Shushannah Walsh notes, “Palin will point to a positive win-loss record—46 number of her 77 candidates triumphed, (12 races had yet to be called in the wee hours of Wednesday morning.) But many of the highest-profile races, where she had loudly interjected herself, her candidates—Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, and John Raese in West Virginia—lost.”
Republicans as the party of white men
Admittedly, the Republican Party’s elected officials don’t exactly mirror the general population. However, there were a number of victories by diverse backgrounds, including New Mexico’s Susana Martinez, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, Florida’s Allen West and Marco Rubio, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval, and many others.
It was an unusual election – but on a number of scores, the media got it pretty wrong. Hopefully in two years, people remember to take the storylines created and amplified by the 24-hour news cycle with a grain of salt.
