Democrats and Republicans in Iowa were reviewing the proposed new congressional district boundaries to determine whether to object, but early indications were both parties are inclined to sign off and avoid a messy partisan spat over decennial redistricting.
The independent commission in charge of redistricting in Iowa submitted a map to the legislature that would turn the 1st Congressional District into a definitive Democratic stronghold while making the 2nd Congressional District substantially more Republican than it is already. The 4th Congressional District, long a conservative bastion, would remain as such, while the battleground 3rd Congressional District would remain just that — a toss-up. Top Iowa Democrats lauded the proposal; Republican criticism was muted.
“The proposed maps are a starting point. I expect both parties to thoroughly examine the state legislative districts and congressional boundaries over the coming days to determine if they’ll seek a second drawing or accept the current proposal,” Jimmy Centers, a Republican consultant in Des Moines, Iowa, said Friday.
The Iowa Republican Party offered a similar wait-and-see assessment, lauding the process but reserving final judgment on the new boundaries, in a statement issued after the state Legislative Services Agency unveiled new maps based on statistics from the 2020 federal census. The LSA’s proposal redraws Iowa’s four congressional districts plus the 100 seats in the state House of Representatives and the 50 seats in the state Senate. Top Iowa Democrats liked what they saw.
Under the proposal and based on former President Donald Trump’s victory over President Joe Biden in Iowa last year, the 1st Congressional District would shift from a seat that supported the Republican nominee by 3.4 percentage points to one that would have backed the Democratic nominee by 8.7 points. The 2nd Congressional District would go from Trump-plus-4-points to Trump-plus-10.8-points, the 3rd District from Trump-plus-0.2 to Biden-plus-0.2, and the 4th District from Trump-plus-27 to Trump-plus-31.5.
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Ross Wilburn, the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and a state representative, said he intends to vote to approve the map if it comes up for a vote in the majority-Republican legislature. “Iowans deserve a fair redistricting process, without interference from politicians or partisan amendments,” he told reporters. “So, it appears … that this meets the requirements, and so, I will be planning to vote ‘yes.’”
At first blush, it might appear as though the congressional map is too generous to the Democrats in a state that has shifted red since Trump won the White House in 2016. Democrats control zero Senate seats, just 1 of 4 House seats, only 3 of 7 state constitutional offices, and are the minority party in the state House of Representatives and state Senate, with Republicans controlling a governing majority in both chambers.
But some GOP operatives in Iowa believe the party is poised to approve the new maps, including the new congressional boundaries, as-is because they are so generous to Republicans in the legislature. Nothing in the redraw threatens Republicans in the state Senate, while the GOP is arguably poised to gain seats in the state House of Representatives based on the new, proposed lines.
However, because the map would force several Republicans in the House of Representatives into primaries against each other, the possibility exists that they might oppose it anyway.
“Obviously, if we turn this down, we don’t know what we’ll get back,” a Republican insider in Iowa said.
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One experienced Iowa Republican strategist urged caution as the GOP reviews independent commission’s redistricting proposal, which the legislature is empowered to reject. The process also calls for the public to comment on the new map before it is approved, creating another pressure point for possible changes.
“Democrats certainly like this plan, which ought to make the GOP concerned,” David Kochel said.
