Donald Trump is looming over the Ohio Senate race as the Republican candidates jockey for an endorsement and urge the former president to overlook past resistance to his leadership.
J.D. Vance, the venture capitalist and author who entered the Republican primary Thursday as a populist Trump stalwart, did not vote for the 45th president in 2016 and was initially critical of his administration. Bernie Moreno, a wealthy businessman, once called Trump a lunatic, and Mike Gibbons, the other wealthy businessman in the race, has previously lamented the “cult of personality” surrounding Trump in the GOP.
Even Jane Timken, the former Ohio Republican Party chairwoman and a Trump loyalist, has come under fire. Her sin? Being sufficiently critical of Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez after he voted to impeach the former president in the waning days of his administration for his alleged culpability in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol. Only Josh Mandel seems free of any Trump problems. Naturally, he is the front-runner.
“It’s anybody’s race — and likely to be Trump’s pick if he endorses,” a senior Ohio Republican said.
Sen. Rob Portman decided to retire in 2022, sparking a crowded battle for the Republican nomination. Ohio has trended red in the Trump era, with the former president winning big there in 2016 and 2020. Trump remains popular with grassroots Republicans in the state despite reelection to President Joe Biden, affording him enormous influence in the developing Senate primary. Initially, that contest centered on Mandel and Timken, fighting over who is the most pro-Trump.
Mandel entered the race with a big war chest left over from his aborted 2018 Senate campaign. His populist style is a good fit for the Republican base in Ohio, and he is well known from past statewide campaigns. But personal foibles could sink Mandel’s campaign. Just recently, some of his campaign staff quit, citing a toxic work environment related to a romantic relationship the candidate is engaged in with a top finance aide.
“Josh is the most conservative candidate in the race and the most pro-Trump candidate in the race. We’ve got a lot of work to do, but we are in a strong position,” Mandel campaign spokesman Ethan Zorfas said. He declined to comment on the potentially troubling campaign personnel matters.
Timken is focused on building a statewide campaign and assembling an army of grassroots foot soldiers in all 88 Ohio counties. Her campaign has appointed a chair in every county and touts endorsements from one congressman, four state senators, 22 state representatives, 11 mayors, 26 county commissioners, 18 county GOP chairs, and 38 members of the Ohio GOP state central committee.
The primary is not until April of next year. But the Timken campaign has already notched more than 200,000 voter contacts, with approximately 10% made during a “super Saturday day of action” canvassing event that saw more than 300 volunteers knock on doors and make phone calls. “Jane Timken is the candidate of the grassroots in this race,” a campaign memo issued on June 29 said.
Gibbons and Moreno are both running as heirs to the Trump political legacy, presenting themselves as outsider businessmen in a field of traditional politicians. And Moreno enjoys the support of Kellyanne Conway, a former White House adviser to the 45th president and campaign manager of his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton. But Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, might be doing more than anyone besides Mandel to claim the mantle of ultimate Trump culture warrior.
For instance, Vance has raged against large technology companies, and in announcing his Senate bid, he proposed raising taxes on companies “that are shipping our jobs overseas.” Republican insiders in Ohio are panning Vance’s nascent campaign, criticizing the candidate as a contrived populist who has not bothered to meet with grassroots party leaders. The $10 million super PAC set up for Vance by Republican megadonor Peter Thiel is more evidence of what’s wrong with Vance, critics say.
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Vance hails from small-town Ohio and was raised in humble circumstances. Although he left the state for an Ivy League education and worked in finance while living primarily on the West Coast before moving to the Cincinnati area, Republicans who know him say that he underwent a heartfelt political transformation as he realized the impact certain federal policies have on working-class Ohio communities, including the one in which he was raised.

