The Supreme Court of Ohio announced Tuesday it will not reach a decision on the state’s new congressional map until after the May 3 primary.
As a result, the state’s current map, which is widely regarded as being favorable to Republicans, will most likely dictate the district lines for the state’s 15 upcoming congressional races for the primary — but could get struck down after party nominees are selected. The primary could also be delayed.
OHIO REMOVES STATE RACES FROM MAY PRIMARY DUE TO REDISTRICTING SQUABBLE
“There is no reason to expedite this case. At this juncture, it is abundantly clear that this case will not be litigated prior to the 2022 primary election,” three Republican justices wrote. “Given the logistical hurdles of enacting legislation, the possibility of it being subject to referendum, and the 30-day delay before the commission may adopt a plan if the General Assembly fails to do so, any plan adopted to replace the current plan will come too late to use for the May primary.”
Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor gave a roughly two-month window for the parties to submit arguments to the court, which means the case will still be active several weeks after the primary is slated to take place.
Democratic groups, including Obama Attorney General Eric Holder’s National Redistricting Action Fund, have filed a challenge against the map, which went into effect after being passed by the Republican-dominated Ohio Redistricting Commission on March 2. The plaintiffs claim the map is unconstitutional and unfairly gerrymanders in favor of Republicans.
Ohio’s current congressional map would likely create a 10-2 split favoring Republicans with three seats being competitive, according to Dave Wasserman, a national elections analyst for the Cook Political Report. In other words, Republicans could boost their current 12-4 congressional seat count majority to 13-2. Ohio lost a seat during the most recent census.
In January, the court struck down the state’s previous congressional map, ruling that it engaged in unconstitutional gerrymandering. Political analysts such as Wasserman indicated the new map bore a striking resemblance to the prior one that the high court struck down. The Ohio Constitution restricts the state from gerrymandering.
“The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio,” the state constitution says.
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Two weeks ago, the court struck down state Legislature maps. As a result, the state was forced to remove Legislature candidates from its ballots in anticipation of a delayed primary for those races if the state is unable to enact new ones. While congressional primaries can legally proceed as scheduled, the state may also opt to delay those races to keep them in sync with the Legislature primaries if the state is unable to pass new maps on time, according to Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Ohio is currently one of about a dozen states with congressional maps in effect that are engulfed in lawsuits over how new lines were drawn. Five states, including Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, and New Hampshire, currently have no legally binding map in place.
