As the Republican Party searches for meaning and purpose in a time of uncertainty, there seems to be an emerging point of clarity: if the GOP is going to have any chance of beating President Obama, its salvation will come from Minnesota. Last night, former governor Tim Pawlenty of the Gopher State leaked a preview of his announcement that he will be kicking off his campaign in Iowa today.
Earlier that day, in a bizarrely-timed 1 a.m. message, Gov. Mitch Daniels of the Hoosier State joined Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and TV personality Donald Trump by bowing out of contention. Meanwhile, there are two other major contenders still in the fight, but neither really has any chance of winning their party’s nomination.
Former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusettss is floating in cash, but did shockingly badly in 2008. Despite a strong resume and polished stage presence, Romney lost the bellwether states of New Hampshire and Iowa and only managed to win a handful of states in New England and the Mountain West. His support for the individual health care mandate in his home state of Massachusetts will only make it tougher for him this time around.
Then there is Newt. Last week may not have been the end of the world, but it was certainly the end of Gingrich’s chances after a series of off-the-cuff statements criticizing his party’s proposals to reform Medicare and the entitlement state so that the government doesn’t go bankrupt in the next 20 years.
To win the GOP nomination, a candidate needs to provide a credible alternative to Obama’s policies of relentless expansion of government. Because of his support for the individual mandate, Romney is not credible. Because of his opposition to Medicare reform, Gingrich is not even an alternative.
Aside from the major contenders, there are also a few other long shots like businessman Herman Cain, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah, and fmr. Governor Gary Johnson of New Mexico who have tossed or may toss their hats in the ring.
Of these, Bachmann (who, like Pawlenty, is also from Minnesota) is immensely popular with the Tea Party crowd and could become a dark horse challenger. However, it may be too late for her to make much headway as the two former governors Pawlenty and Romney build momentum.
On a larger scale, it makes sense that the new generation of Republican leaders is emerging in the Great Lakes region, with Pawlenty of Minnesota as the most likely to garner the Republican nomination for president and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as the de facto leader of his party in Congress.
Of the seven states that flipped from supporting Obama in 2008 to a complete GOP sweep in 2010, no less than five—Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—all border the Great Lakes. Then, in the past year, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin all started to push back on decades of lavish pension and benefit expansions for public-sector employees that now pose a challenge almost as great as the looming insolvency of Medicare and Social Security.
Given these trends, Pawlenty has a big advantage. As a Republican in famously liberal Minnesota, he knows how to unify conservatives and independents to forge a winning coalition. He will also undoubtedly have the support of fellow Republican governors—except for Romney of course—who oppose ObamaCare’s individual mandate that will only worsen the already dire fiscal situation at the state level.
It also doesn’t hurt that the critical Iowa Caucus is just in the next state over. Pawlenty will likely be making a lot of bus trips through Iowa in the coming months.
