When the first bit of organized conservative discontent with the anti-coronavirus quarantines bubbled to the surface, President Trump was quick to signal his support. He tweeted that protesters should “LIBERATE” (emphasis his) three states with Democratic governors experiencing varying degrees of backlash against the scope of their stay-at-home orders — Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota. Trump narrowly carried Michigan in 2016 and would like to add the other two to his column in November.
“I mean, I notice there were a lot of protests out there,” Trump said at the April 18 White House press briefing on the coronavirus. “And I just think that some of the governors have gotten carried away.” On April 16, he said, “They seem to be protesters that like me.”
It’s no secret that Trump has been eager to see a return to the kind of economic statistics such as low unemployment, modest GDP growth, and rising wages for the lowest earners that the country enjoyed before coronavirus-induced business closures interrupted the boom times. The rosy figures that once gave Trump his best chance at reelection have been replaced by numbers that more closely resemble the Great Depression. In addition to the political fallout, the human cost of the slowdown will be worse the longer it lasts.
Republicans are more likely than Democrats or independents to tell pollsters they fear the economic consequences of the lockdowns more than the public health threat of the virus. Multiple longtime Tea Party activists told the Washington Examiner the energy surrounding the anti-lockdown protests is familiar to them. “Nobody wants wanton disregard for safety,” said Tea Party Express co-founder Sal Russo. “Everybody knows coronavirus kills people and disables people.” Still, some Trump supporters worry the president is misreading the room.
A Morning Consult poll taken in April found that, while Republican concern about the economy was deepening, public opinion among senior citizens, a reliable voting bloc, especially for Trump and the GOP, was moving in the opposite direction. By a nearly 6-1 margin, voters aged 65 and older say it is more important to focus on the coronavirus than the economy. After supporting how Trump was handling the pandemic more than any other age group in mid-March, their net approval fell 20 points. Seniors are now second only to 18-to-29-year-olds in their disapproval of Trump on the coronavirus.
It is hurting Trump in head-to-head matchups with fellow senior citizen Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump trailed Biden among the 65-and-up crowd by 9 points, 52% to 43%. That’s almost a complete reversal of 2016 when Trump won these voters by 52% to 45% over Hillary Clinton. If Trump cannot win them back, it will strike a potentially mortal blow to his reelection chances.
Given the volatility of both public perceptions and the pandemic itself, Republicans do not rule out regaining older voters’ support. “All politics is personal. And senior citizens see this virus as a personal threat to them, mostly because it hits seniors the hardest,” said GOP strategist John Feehery. “They are alone and terrified and isolated. And so, they are going to blame Trump. That’s how it goes. Once the crisis passes, he should be able to make the case that he did a good job of managing a difficult situation.”
Trump has also shown a willingness to shift according to public and expert opinion. He talked up a potential Easter easing of social distancing but backed off with little protest when the medical consensus suggested otherwise. Days after reprimanding Democratic governors for overreaching, Trump expressed concern that Georgia’s GOP governor might be reopening his state too fast. And, in the same briefing where he first expressed solidarity with the protesters, he also argued everyone was on the same page.
“My opinion is the same as just about all of the governors,” Trump said. “They all want to open. Nobody wants to stay shut, but they want to open safely. So do I.”
The protesters, Tea Party leader Michael Johns said, “seem to understand, as President Trump does, that there is a balancing act in this pandemic between guaranteeing public health and safety, which is obviously the first concern, and getting our economy back on track, which is also hugely important. Yet, here and there, I see some activists denying that coronavirus represents any public health threat or that there is some broader political conspiracy behind it. This presents a leadership challenge.”
W. James Antle III is the Washington Examiner’s politics editor.
