Two days before the midterm elections, Republican gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp, Georgia’s Secretary of State, dropped a bombshell by announcing an investigation into the Democratic party over a failed hacking attempt.
Kemp didn’t offer any evidence regarding the attempted breach of the state’s online voter registration system. But the last-minute maneuver has led Democrats to cry “witch hunt” and Kemp’s Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams, to argue the move was a “desperate attempt” to distract voters before the election.
It’s an open question whether the 11th-hour gambit could pay off or backfire.
“Most people have made up their minds,” Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University, said. “The notion of the undecided voter is a really, really small group of people – if it exists at all – and people’s preferences are pretty hardened already and polarized.”
Gillespie, who used to work for Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, noted that a large number of Georgians — 2.1 million according to the Atlanta-Journal Constitution — have already voted. “We need to rethink our notion of what an October surprise is in the context that many people cast their ballots already,” she said. “If this were being done to try to sway the vote, this may have happened too late.”
Kemp and Abrams are locked in a tight battle for the governor’s mansion, though Kemp maintains a slight edge, according to a poll from Emerson College released Friday. The RealClearPolitics average gives Kemp a 2.8 percent advantage.
In the run-up to the election, both candidates have brought in heavy-hitters to galvanize voters. On Thursday, Oprah Winfrey and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Abrams and Kemp, respectively. Former President Barack Obama and President Trump have also appeared on the campaign trail for the candidates.
Kemp raised eyebrows when his office said Sunday it had launched its probe into the state Democratic Party “after receiving information from our legal team about failed efforts to breach the online voter registration system and My Voter Page.” His office further said it had contacted “federal partners” and asked the FBI to investigate “possible cybercrimes.”
Georgia Democrats deny the allegations from the secretary of state’s office. The timing of Kemp’s announcement — two days before Georgia voters head to the polls — has come under scrutiny, particularly when taken together with other accusations the Republican secretary of state was already using his position to suppress minority voters.
“There has always been a cloud over this particular election because of the allegations of voter suppression,” Gillespie said. “This story sort of fits that narrative that Georgia voters need to be vigilant.”
“Even before [Sunday’s] allegation, there was somebody who was ready to have a jaundiced eye in the event that the election was close,” she continued.
Bryan Tyson, an election lawyer in Georgia and former aide to a Republican congressman, agreed the announcement from Kemp’s office may not make much of a difference with impacting Tuesday’s election.
“I’m not sure this adds a whole lot to it,” he said. “This is something people have heard a lot of already.”
Georgia’s gubernatorial race is one of the most closely watched, as Abrams would become the nation’s first African-American female governor if she defeats Kemp.
But there’s a chance the race won’t end Tuesday. In Georgia, if neither candidate clinches a majority, the top two will advance to a runoff, currently scheduled for Dec. 4.
And with Ted Metz, the Libertarian candidate, on the ballot, both Abrams’ and Kemp’s teams are preparing for a runoff, according to Politico.
Tyson said it’s likely the investigation into the alleged hacking could be finished by Dec. 4. But he noted that regardless of the outcome of the probe, narratives for “base voters on both sides” will be reinforced. For Republicans, that’s concerns about election integrity, he said, and for Democrats, concerns about voter suppression.
Gillespie said she “leaves room” for people to change their opinions based on the results of the investigation from the secretary of state’s office, but said a key question is whether there are any facts to substantiate the case, as well as what those facts are.
Still, Gillespie said whether Abrams or Kemp is ultimately victorious in a runoff depends largely on voter turnout. “There’s a lot of polarization,” she said, “so I think people will stick to their corner and it’ll really be about whether both sides turn out.”
