Kamala Harris has a lot riding on Thursday’s Democratic presidential debate in Houston. The California senator, a breakout star at the first Democratic debate, has since faded from the top ranks of contenders.
Thursday’s debate comes amid desultory poll numbers and unforced campaign errors. Although her support doubled from 8% to 17%, according to a CNN poll immediately following the first Democratic debate, a Quinnipiac University poll in August shows her poll numbers dropping to 7%. The RealClearPolitics average has Harris at 7.2%, well behind former Vice President Joe Biden at 29.8%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 18.7%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 18%.
Adding to the campaign’s woes, this week a campaign staffer left a strategy memo at a New Hampshire restaurant detailing internal concerns over the candidate’s performance.
To come back, Harris will need to stand out on the debate stage in Houston Thursday night.
“Debate news likely created her movement” in the first place, Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf told the Washington Examiner. “And without new debate news, she might be stalled permanently for the ticket’s top slot.”
Thursday’s debate will be the first time Harris shares a stage with all of the top 2020 Democrats, including Biden, Warren, and Sanders. It may be her final chance to show she can reenergize her campaign and pull out the surprises her supporters say she has ready to go.
[Previous coverage: Kamala Harris campaign slumping after first debate blows against Joe Biden]
The waning days of summer, though, are proving a tough stretch for Harris’ campaign. The former California attorney general and San Francisco district attorney has yet to pull herself out from a campaign sinkhole since her second debate performance in Detroit. That night, a low-polling rival, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, put her on the defense over her prosecutorial record.
That marked a long fall from Harris’ first debate performance in Miami. Then, she took on Biden directly over his 1970s-era opposition to busing and boasting of chumminess with segregationist senators. But the Miami-post debate high only lasted so long.
Talking up her opposition to President Trump may be one way to regain momentum, said Jeff Link, an Iowa-based Democratic consultant.
“The characteristics that that Iowans are looking for in a nominee this year are, can you beat Trump? Can you beat Trump? And can you beat Trump?” Link said. “Her debate performance in June was one that gave people a little glimpse into whether she could stand toe-to-toe with Trump, and I think a lot of people said, ‘Yes.’ I think her July debate performance didn’t quite deliver that same feeling for a lot of people, which is maybe why things have kind of leveled off for her.”
A Harris supporter in Congress, Florida Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings, still believes she has a strong chance to win the Democratic nomination despite her current polling position. Along with Iowa, the Harris campaign has strong campaign infrastructure in other early primary and caucus states, he said.
“I think that they’re going to be some surprises along the way,” Hastings told the Washington Examiner. “Kamala has a very good operation in Nevada and South Carolina.”
When asked about her current polling numbers, Hastings said, “I could ask the same question about what has happened to the 16 other candidates that are running, as well. So, at the moment it seems that the only person that is rocketing is Elizabeth Warren. Everybody else seems to have lost a little momentum. So, Kamala is in that same category.”
A South Carolina win would take Harris straight into Super Tuesday, where 14 states have their primary contests across the country, including Harris’ native California and a huge swath of Southern states.
Within the campaign, there’s concern about donors sticking with the candidate, per the strategy memo left behind at the New Hampshire restaurant.
And Harris donors, according to the Wall Street Journal, gathered at two private meetings in New York to strategize about how Harris can improve her poll standing. The first meeting zeroed in on her prominent endorsements in early states and her appeal to younger voters, while the second meeting was more focused on concise messaging.
[Also read: Five times prosecutor Kamala Harris got the wrong guy]
