The race between Rep. Ben Cardin and ex-Rep. Kweisi Mfume for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination continues to be close, despite Cardin?s huge advantages in fundraising and endorsements, according to a new poll. But both men are shown beating Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the likely Republican nominee for the seat being vacated by Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
According to a statewide Gonzales Research media poll released today, Cardin leads Mfume 39 percent to 31 percent in the Democratic primary. Cardin, the longtime Baltimore-area congressman, leads 49 percent to 13 percent among white voters, while Mfume, the former president of the NAACP, has a 69 percent to 17 percent lead among black voters.
“Turnout could be very important in determining the winner,” pollster Patrick Gonzales said in his analysis, since blacks make up more than one-third of Democratic voters.
If the election were held right now, Cardin would get 49 percent to Steele?s 35 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Mfume has a smaller edge against Steele, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
“It?s clear that Ben Cardin is the strongest Democrat to take on the Bush-Steele team in November,” said Cardin spokesman Oren Shur. “We believe Marylanders will pick an experienced leader with a track record of getting things done.”
Steele does slightly better among black voters than Maryland Republicans traditionally do, getting 21 percent of their vote, Gonzales said. “But, ultimately, Steele will to need to accomplish what any statewide Republican candidate in Maryland must do to be successful ? persuade about 1 in 3 Democrats to vote for him.”
The Steele camp was optimistic. “The Democrats? own poll shows Michael Steele making incredible inroads in the Democratic Party,” said Melissa Seller, deputy communications director for his campaign. “Voters will continue to see the clear contrast between Michael Steele?s positive message of empowerment and his opponents? divisive race-based attack strategy.”
How Poll Was Done
The poll was conducted April 4-13 and contacted 819 registered voters. Among them were 423 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is 3.5 percent, with larger margins of error for any subgroup.
