Looking at the Iraq Supplemental

The old adage warns that if you like sausage, you better not watch it made. The good news is that no one likes the Iraq supplemental that Congressional Democrats are working on. The House and Senate have to reconcile their bills–particularly on the question of whether the president will veto a bill with a mandated withdrawal date, or a suggested one. The conference can’t officially begin until next week, when the House returns from recess and names its conferees. That hasn’t stopped the president from inviting Congressional leaders to the White House to talk about “a clean bill: a bill that funds our troops without artificial timetables for withdrawal, and without handcuffing our generals on the ground.” The Democrats see themselves as far more reasonable; they refuse to talk to the president because he won’t consider a timetable for withdrawal–and discussing that option is a must-have for them, or no negotiations are possible. (I nominate this move for most transparent political stance ever. Perhaps the President should tell them he’s changed his mind–that he’ll talk about a timetable–and then when they arrive at the White House yell, ‘psyche!’) Assuming a veto, Congressional Democrats aren’t clear on what the next step will be, exactly. Some–like Senators Levin and Obama–say that they will send the President a ‘clean bill,’ but most are itching for a fight. Democratic presidential hopefuls continue to push ever leftward on Iraq, while contributors at Huffington Post, DailyKos, and MyDD are arguing for Democrats not to give in–likely increasing the chances that the next supplemental will not be a clean one and that this fight is going to get ugly indeed. Meanwhile, commentators opine on whether the Democrats made a strategic error in picking this fight. (Who do I think will ‘win?’ I’ll stick with my early prediction). But while leaders send mixed signals about what comes next, there’s one group that remains highly predictable: lobbyists. Congressional Quarterly reports that they’re praying that once the president vetoes the Iraq funding bill, their favored line-items are not cut from the next version. Since spending in the Iraq supplemental isn’t subject to budget caps, this is a golden opportunity to get funding without needing to find an offsetting cut elsewhere: