A second New Hampshire poll, this one from the famously bouncy ARG, shows a three way tie in N.H. between Romney, McCain, and Giuliani. All primary polls are tricky, but this makes the second poll in a row in N.H. to show a three-way tie. Let me interpret this Gospel. The race is, as primaries tend to be, loose. It is still early and there is plenty of time for each candidate to do well. Rudy, despite what his cheerleaders say, is still sitting about where he was a year ago. Bad sign. This says he’s about name I.D. and his support is not growing. Romney climbed all year, a good sign, but lately he has declined. A troubling sign of potential weakness ahead. And if Mitt is slipping in N.H. now, he’s probably slipping in Iowa too . . . the next round of polls should tell. The big movement in both polls is McCain edging back from a near-death experience. There is new life in McCain’s campaign; but I fear a N.H.-only strategy ignores the powerful three-candidate tidal wave that will come out of Iowa a few days before. Fred Thompson has national poll numbers but, like with Rudy, those are a lagging indicator. In N.H. Fred’s numbers are spiraling down. Unless he performs well in the next debate and starts to make news soon, he’ll fizzle out.
