Adam Kinzinger survived the Trump years despite his frequent criticism of the president.
But in the looming post-Trump era, his political future is uncertain due to expected redistricting as the result of the 2020 census.
The Illinois Republican congressman, an Iraq veteran and Air Force National Guard lieutenant colonel who was first elected to Congress in 2010 with the tea party wave, did not support President Trump in 2016 and has since often fired off tweets and appeared on cable television slamming Trump and his political style. In December, in response to Trump’s claims of voter fraud, Kinzinger said: “Delete your account.”
Despite his public shaming of the leader of the party, Kinzinger in November won reelection to a sixth term with nearly 65% support.
But the political map is about to change on Kinzinger.
Jim Lewis, a legislative redistricting expert who is a researcher at the University of Illinois, Chicago and Rob Paral & Associates, expects the state of Illinois to lose at least one House seat. He expects that a seat will be eliminated around the exurbs and far suburbs in the Chicago area — right where Kinzinger’s district lies.
“I wouldn’t be comfortable,” Lewis told the Washington Examiner, “if I were in his shoes.”
In Illinois, the Democratic state Legislature has authority over drawing congressional districts and will undoubtedly attempt to remove one of the five Republican-held seats rather than a Democratic one.
Kinzinger is no stranger to the repercussions of redistricting.
As a result of redistricting in 2012, Kinzinger faced off against two-decade Republican Rep. Don Manzullo in an ugly primary fight and defeated him 54% to 46%.
But in the current political environment with a Republican base energized by Trump, the Trump critic might not be able to pull off a repeat feat in a Republican primary.
In a recent interview with the Chicago Tribune, Kinzinger indicated that his decision on whether to run again depends on the results of the new Illinois congressional map.
“I’m telling you the honest-to-God’s truth, I’m just not worrying about it because it’s in God’s hands and the Democrats’. I’ll deal with what they give me,” Kinzinger said. “If I think I can get through a primary and win, and I’d be good at the job, I’d certainly entertain whatever that is.”
His Trump criticism hasn’t hurt his reelection chances so far, though.
“If you look at my election results, I outperformed Trump by like 13 points in my district,” Kinzinger told the Chicago Tribune.
Could Kinzinger’s brand as a Trump critic help him stay in the good graces of the Democratic line-drawers?
Lewis said Kinzinger’s vocal opposition to the president would have a “minimal” impact on whether Kinzinger’s district is kept intact enough for him enough to run a winning campaign in 2022.
“The top priority is maintaining the Democratic seats, and I think once you’ve kind of drawn those the way you want them, the rest of it sort of gets ‘filled in,’” Lewis said, while still maintaining some “attendance to the geography and the communities of interest.”
And while Democrats may appreciate Kinzinger for his Trump criticism, the Republican congressman is still very conservative by Illinois standards. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, Kinzinger voted with Trump 92% of the time — a higher score than dozens of his Republican colleagues.
“Maybe being against Trump counts for a point here and there, but he’s still not someone who is in the mainstream of who Illinois has been electing in the last couple of election cycles,” Lewis said. “If there is any effort around picking the Republican, it’s going to be pretty minimal.”
Kinzinger’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
