Republican pollster and communications strategist Steve Lombardo weighed-in recently on a couple interesting questions related to the Bush presidency. First, Lombardo argues that the 43rd president’s approval is what I would describe as “term dependent.” And second, while a high percentage of Americans believed the country was on the “wrong track” during Mr. Bush’s second four years, there were actually very few periods in the last three decades that a majority of Americans didn’t think we were headed in the wrong direction. Consider the question of presidential approval. While these numbers seem almost unbelievable given what we’ve witnessed over the past four years, Mr. Bush’s average approval for his first 4 and one-half years was 60 percent. Lombardo writes this:
While his rating dropped significantly from 9/11 onward, it was at or above 60% for two years and then hovered around 50% for the balance of his first term (his numbers dropped into the high 40’s at the end of 2004 but rebounded after his re-election into the low to mid 50s). His average favorability rating for the first 4 and ½ years of his Presidency–from January of 2001 through August of 2005–was a remarkably high 60%.
Lombardo believes Hurricane Katrina created a hole from which Mr. Bush never emerged:
Bush never recovered from Katrina. Of course the war and other factors contributed to his increasing unfavorable numbers but it was voter perceptions of his performance regarding Katrina that sealed his image in his second term. Up until that point, while voters may have disapproved of his policies and the execution of the war, a majority still thought he was a caring President trying to do the right thing. That leg of the stool collapsed after Katrina
Next, Lombardo looks at the “right track/wrong track” numbers and observes this with a persuasive chart going back to 1972. Contrary to the belief that our national funk is all due to George Bush, it demonstrates that the “wrong track” mindset has become embedded in our country’s psyche:
Note that in only eight of the last 36 years has the public believed that the country was going in the “right direction.” These included the years from 1984-1986 which marked Reagan’s landslide re-election through the start of his second term to the mid-term elections, and the heart of the recent economic boom from 1997 through 2002. Stunningly, the average of the annual average over the last 36 years is 36% right direction and 52% wrong track. Voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the country has become the norm. When “right direction” exceeds “wrong track” – it will be truly unusual.
Read Lombardo’s full analysis here.
