Their initial broadsides have been fired and the dreadnaughts Obama and McCain are listing, but neither seems likely to sink in open water. Despite the hopes of some partisans, this battle will be fought to the last man on decks.
The Sarah Palin phenomenon will settle down to a low roar among the GOP base as a very angry press corps has its revenge on Alaska’s governor. She soared when they said she would be a flop and now they will dog her until they are proven right or Election Day, whichever comes first.
In three weeks, persuadable voters in swing states will decide that they still like Palin, but have concerns about the story they heard about her brother-in-law ‘s tanning bed earmark or Moose-gate or whatever ABC News’ Brain Ross is excited about by then.
After her debate with Joe Biden in St. Louis 20 days from now, we’ll see less and less of Sarah Palin, except for at rallies in red counties in swing states and as a voodoo doll on Maureen Dowd’s dresser.
Also faded by then will be the much-vaunted new Democratic map.
As he learned in his battle with Hillary Clinton, no matter how much money Barack Obama has, huge purchases of airtime can’t move numbers the way they did before the mass media splintered.
Plus, Obama’s message remains muddled. He went from “change we can believe in” to “change we need,” but probably only after high-level meetings and a flurry of memoranda. Obama remains too cool, too Ivy League, and too aloof to connect with the white, suburban and rural voters who are usually the ones up for grabs.
Even if money can’t help Obama with his message, it can buy organization. The kids with hand computers instantly registering likely Democrats in St. Louis and Columbus, the dozens of field offices in swing states, and the layer upon layer of staff will help deliver votes in November. The community organizer won Iowa with organization and plans to do the same with the White House.
But it won’t be enough.
New registrants have a horrible track record for actually going to the polls and the ardor Obama stoked among voters turned off by politics as usual will fade fast after five weeks of he and McCain sliming each other.
All this means that we will likely see razor-thin margins in key suburban counties in a handful of states – places like Macomb, Mich. north of Detroit and in Jefferson, Colo. west of Denver. That means Democrats will need to have even more lopsided margins in the cities nearby.
Denver is currently racked with controversy over its status as a sanctuary city for illegal immigrants and Detroit is at present reminding the nation how its local politicians acquired their reputation for corruption and incompetence.
If the outcome of the election hinges on either state, it’s not hard to imagine the controversy being worse than any since we almost had a second Civil War over the 1876 returns.
One of the key strengths in the organizations that George W. Bush put together was its legal team. In both 2000 and 2004, the Bush campaign had legal teams ready to deploy across the country long before the first chad was ever dimpled.
In talking to a number of GOP lawyers, its clear that John McCain isn’t anywhere near that point yet. About all they’ve done so far is to make sure that they had a male and female attorney for each state. There are promises of more to come, but all admit that both Bush campaigns were far better represented at this point than McCain’s is now.
Meanwhile, out in Chicago, attorney Obama is amassing his legal forces in what Democratic attorneys say is the best election law squad they’ve ever seen. If you think the gang they dropped in Alaska to grind Sarah Palin into moose burgers was impressive, wait until you see who is hanging around courthouses on November 4.
They already were at work in Michigan this week, sending Republicans off chasing their own tails with denials that they were trying to disenfranchise the “victims” of foreclosure. It may not have been true, but it was clear that the Obama folks were ready to pounce, while Republicans were blindsided.
McCain may chafe under bureaucracy and the corporate approach to politics. But if he doesn’t get his legal department up and running soon, he might get out-lawyered even if he doesn’t get out voted.
Chris Stirewalt is the political editor of The Washington Examiner. He can be reached at [email protected].
