The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization claimed Wednesday the regime can restart production of highly enriched uranium in just four days.
Ali Akbar Salehi’s remarks followed the country’s announcement it will no longer abide by limitations placed on its enrichment activities by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Both came on the one-year anniversary of the U.S. withdrawing from the deal.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran declares that at the current stage, it does not any more see itself committed to respecting the limitations on keeping enriched uranium and heavy water reserves,” Tehran’s statement said. The nuclear deal limits the regime to a 660-pound stockpile of low-enriched uranium, or LEU, a key ingredient for producing energy in nuclear reactors. Any additional LEU produced must be sold.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also threatened to resume production of more highly enriched uranium in 60 days unless the remaining parties to the nuclear deal agree to protect Iran from U.S. sanctions. President Trump placed new sanctions on Iran shortly after pulling out of the deal last year.
Once a country is capable of enriching uranium to the 20% margin cited by Salehi, it can easily reach the 90% enrichment required for weapons-grade uranium, according to experts.
Matthew Kroenig, deputy director for strategy at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, told the Washington Examiner Salehi’s time frame “sounds about right.”
“Enrichment is like riding a bike,” said Kroenig, a former CIA and Department of Defense analyst. “The hard part is doing it at all. Once you can ride, peddling a bit harder to increase speed is easy.”
Physicist David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security told the Washington Examiner that Iran could “probably” resume production in four days, “but it would be very small quantities produced on a daily basis.”
“But it would be a major violation of the JCPOA,” said Albright.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Rouhani’s threat is a response to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran.
“Iran is signaling that it too, has options, to respond to max pressure,” Taleblu told the Washington Examiner. “Rouhani’s game plan, which involves gradually ramping up Iran’s nuclear program, is designed to instill fear in America and water down the sanctions regime. Part of that involves resurrecting the threat of 20 [percent] enrichment.”
National security analysts have been concerned with Iran’s “breakout time,” the minimum amount of time it would take for the country to acquire a nuclear weapon, since they became aware of its nuclear program. Iran nuclear deal critics note that the deal’s restrictions eventually expire, meaning the regime only needs to wait for them to sunset in 15 years, after which point the country’s breakout time is effectively zero. Kroenig argued the U.S. should have simply “taken away the bike.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a surprise visit to Iraq Tuesday in response to escalating tensions with Iran. The Navy deployed a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the Middle East earlier this week.
