World leaders are in Warsaw this week for the NATO Summit, where they’re expected to discuss how to present a united front against growing threats in an increasingly unstable world.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this week in a preview of the summit that decisions made at the meeting in Poland will help allies remain united and strong against outside threats.
“In an age of uncertainty, we need our alliance more than ever for predictability, cooperation and unity. The decisions we will take at the Warsaw Summit will strengthen our alliance and demonstrate our resolve,” he said during a press conference in Brussels.
President Obama and Defense Secretary Ash Carter both will be heading to the summit, which will take place on Friday and Saturday. Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said Carter is “looking forward” to the summit, his first at defense secretary.
“In addition to talking about [the Islamic State], this will be another chance to highlight the importance of the NATO alliance at this particular moment in time, a chance to look at the solidarity of the alliance right now, and to discuss a range of issues,” Cook said this week.
Here are some of the major topics officials are sure to discuss.
1. Russia
Stoltenberg said protecting allies on the eastern edge of NATO from Russian aggression will be a key theme of the biannual summit.
At a defense ministerial in Brussels last month, officials agreed to station four multinational battalions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Canada recently agreed to lead one of the four, joining Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom as the other countries leading the charge.
Jeff Rathke, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he expects to see other countries, like Denmark and France, stepping up their commitment, whether that’s contributing ground forces to these battalions or helping with NATO’s presence in the air over the Baltic states.
On Saturday, the NATO Ukraine Commission will meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who is expected to present his country’s Strategic Defense Bulletin, which contains Ukraine’s plan for defense reform, including increasing transparency and cutting corruption.
2. Afghanistan
World leaders are expected to meet Saturday morning to talk about the path forward in Afghanistan, according to a schedule for the summit, just days after the White House announced that it would slow the exit of U.S. troops from the country.
President Obama announced on Wednesday that the current 9,800 U.S. force level would draw down to 8,400 by the end of 2016, a change from the previous plan to shrink to just 5,500 U.S. troops in the country. A senior administration official said that announcing the revision to the drawdown plan before the summit will allow for a “more constructive conversation” at the meetings, where Obama said he is “confident” more allies will confirm their future contributions to the fight for Afghanistan.
Stoltenberg said Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and chief executive Abdullah Abdullah will also join allies at the summit to discuss plans for the country, but stressed that NATO will continue to fund the Afghan security forces through 2020.
NATO officials are expected to announce in Warsaw that they will be able to maintain a hub in Kabul and Bagram, as well as four “spokes” around the country, two of which in Kandahar and Jalalabad are run by the U.S.
3. Islamic State
NATO members are expected to formally approve an increase in the alliance’s role in the fight against the Islamic State, including conducting training inside Iraq and providing air surveillance capabilities to the coalition.
A senior NATO diplomat said at last month’s ministerial that officials are “within reach” of getting the unanimous agreement necessary to launch NATO operations against the Islamic State, including using the alliance’s 16 airborne warning and control system, or AWACS, aircraft.
The recent spate of violence in the Middle East could drive the conversation. Turkey, a NATO member, recently experienced a major terrorist attack that killed more than 40 people and is suspected to be linked to the Islamic State. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said the attack should represent a turning point in the coalitions campaign to defeat the Islamic State.
4. Refugees
Violence in the Middle East is driving a refugee crisis in the Mediterranean, and Rathke said he expects NATO to discuss changes to its maritime posture.
In Brussels last month, Carter announced that the U.S. would be sending the USNS Grapple, a salvage ship, to aid in the migrant and refugee crisis along NATO’s southern border in the Aegean Sea.
Stoltenberg said this week he expects members at Warsaw to “agree on a role for NATO in the Central Mediterranean, complementing the European Union’s Operation Sophia.”
5. Open doors
This will be the first summit for Montenegro, which was invited to become the 29th member of NATO late last year but has yet to be formally approved by each of the members. That means that it will get to participate in the summit, just like other members, but will not yet have a vote.
“It is significant that it’s their first opportunity to take part at this level in a NATO summit,” Rathke said.
6. Cyber
Stoltenberg said NATO members are expected to formally recognize cyberspace as an operational domain at the Warsaw Summit. That means a significant cyberattack on a NATO member could trigger an Article 5 response from other members.
“This will allow NATO to plan and prepare better for those elements of conflict, which of course as we’ve seen in recent years, the cyberdimension of conflict is growing more and more important,” Rathke said. “I don’t think this will be the end. It’s something that’s only going to grow in importance, so down the road, NATO’s approach to cyberwarfare will continue to develop.”
Stoltenberg also said allies will make a “cyberdefense pledge” at Warsaw to boost the security of their own networks.
“This is part of our overall efforts to increase our resilience, both within our nations and collectively,” he said.
7. Brexit
Stoltenberg and heads of the European Union are expected to sign a memorandum Friday afternoon to increase cooperation between NATO and the E.U. in areas like countering hybrid threats and maritime security, according to a tentative schedule of the summit.
“The European Union contributes to stability and security in Europe,” Stoltenberg said. “We are essential and unique partners and we have to work even closer together and that’s exactly what we are planning to do.”
He also stressed that the United Kingdom’s position in and commitment to NATO is unchanged as a result of its vote to leave the European Union.
“Brexit will change the relationship between U.K. and the European Union, but it will not change U.K.’s position inside NATO,” he said.
Rathke said he expects discussion about Brexit at the summit to be “positive and forward-looking,” rather than focusing on past conflicts between Britain and the European Union.
“I think the U.K. will arrive at the summit wanting to remind everyone that it remains a steadfast, committed member of the North Atlantic alliance, regardless of the referendum on its EU membership,” he said. “I think in a way what you may see is everyone rallying around the importance of the U.K. within NATO.”
8. Spending
Getting NATO allies to boost their spending on defense has been a key priority of Carter and key lawmakers on Capitol Hill and is likely to be a major point of discussion at the summit.
Stoltenberg said member nations are making progress toward fulfilling the pledge made at the last NATO Summit in Wales to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.
He said 22 allies will increase their defense spending, and 18 will increase how much they spend on equipment and research and development.
“We are both spending more and we are spending better. But we have a very long way to go and we must keep up the momentum,” Stoltenberg said.
