With President Biden inaugurated, the race to lead the opposition begins now as ambitious Republicans look ahead to 2024 and start taking steps to lay the foundation for a White House bid.
Nikki Haley got moving earlier this month. The former United States ambassador to the United Nations launched a political action committee to support Republican candidates financially in upcoming elections, a method used by past contenders to cultivate relationships useful in presidential campaigns. Mike Pompeo, the now-former secretary of state, spent days ahead of his Wednesday exit from the State Department encouraging Twitter followers to migrate over to his personal account.
And then, there is former President Donald Trump, whom they both served. He has not ruled out a third White House bid in 2024 and is considering starting a new political party from which to run. Tuesday evening, less than 24 hours before Biden assumed power, senior Trump adviser Jason Miller tweeted a photograph of the executive mansion with the caption: “Until 2025…” — a reference to the next quadrennial presidential inauguration.
Trump possesses a head start over potential competitors. His image with the Republican base is rock solid, and the size of his email list of individual, grassroots donors is unparalleled. Trump additionally begins his post-presidency in command of a PAC, Save America, that is flush with cash, courtesy of the millions of dollars he began raising for it within days of losing to Biden. By comparison, the rest of the field is playing catch-up.
That effort needs to begin immediately, Trump or no Trump, for contenders who at least want to preserve the option to mount a credible 2024 campaign.
That means increasing name identification through appearances on Fox News and other conservative cable television news outlets; beefing up social media presences and building an email fundraising list; burnishing policy credentials on issues that matter to GOP primary voters; forging connections with influential activists; gaining footholds in key, early caucus and primary states; and cultivating networks of donors who can bundle contributions for a campaign.
In particular, digital fundraising and a healthy list of grassroots donors who give online have become a crucial element of successful presidential campaigns. Assembling a lucrative list can take several months, sometimes years. Accordingly, it is imperative Republicans thinking about challenging for the White House in four years begin now to plant the seeds for a healthy digital operation.
“There’s a time value to digital assets just like there’s a time value to a dollar,” said Gerrit Lansing, president of WinRed, an internet hub that processes contributions to Republican candidates and is the GOP equivalent of the Democratic donation aggregator ActBlue. “You get better revenue and output and production if you begin earlier rather than later.”
Brad Todd, a veteran Republican media strategist, recommends two additional steps be added to any potential candidate’s prep list.
“The first thing they need to begin to do is read a lot about foreign policy,” he said. “Typically, this is an area of special expertise that most elected officials don’t have sufficient grounding in.” It also is important, Todd said, for contenders to reflect on why they are running and understanding how grueling the campaign will be.
“You have to spend a lot of time with yourself deciding if you think it is worth it — and why you think it’s worth it because it is essentially taking three to four years of your life, including a year on the back end of it, even if you lose, to recover,” he said.
In addition to Haley, Pompeo, and Trump, some of the most talked-about 2024 Republicans include, among others: Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas; former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas; Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida; Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri; Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland; Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida; and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida.
On the Democratic side, there is speculation Biden, 78, might retire after one term due to his age. However, after garnering 81.3 million votes in November, more than any presidential candidate in history, he might be inclined to seek reelection if he remains in good health. Meanwhile, Trump’s calculus could depend on his viability in a general election, which might have suffered from the Jan. 6 ransacking of the U.S. Capitol by his supporters.
