The New Gallup Poll

You can read the latest Gallup Poll on the state of the Republican presidential race here. Gallup notes:

The basic structure of the national Republican race for president has remained relatively stable since early September. A new Gallup update on the status of the GOP race, based on interviews conducted Oct. 4-7, shows that Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner, followed by Fred Thompson and John McCain.

Giuliani has a 12-point national lead over second-place Thompson, who is closely followed by third-place John McCain. Gallup further notes:

If there has been a change of note over the last several months, it has been the failure of Romney to capitalize on his mini-surge when he won the Iowa straw poll in early August. McCain has, at the same time, recovered his standing after slipping in August. There has been a slight but steady increase in support for Huckabee, despite his very low name identification. Huckabee has gone from 1 percent of the vote as recently as May to 7 percent today, within two points of the better-known (and much better financed) Romney, and clearly separating himself from the other “minor” candidates competing for the GOP nomination.

Giuliani has not been above 35 percent of the national GOP vote in the Gallup poll since May 2007. He is trailing in Iowa. At the moment, his best chances for early state victories remain New Hampshire and South Carolina. I agree with Richelieu that national polls are largely meaningless this far away from the actual voting. But the Gallup results do raise a few questions. Such as: Why hasn’t Giuliani been able to break more than 35 percent of the vote since earlier this year? And is it possible for him to do so? And will Mitt Romney’s national numbers rise if he wins Iowa or New Hampshire? Or is it that, the more you know Romney, the less you like him? And who, exactly, will be left standing after Romney and Giuliani go nuclear on each other?

The New Gallup Poll

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