Stuart Rothenberg’s take on the Tim Kaine Senate candidacy should give his most ardent cheerleaders reason to pause:
Kaine’s initial indecision about jumping into the race isn’t exactly reason for optimism for Democrats, even with the news Monday that he is increasingly likely to enter the 2012 contest. Reluctance isn’t one of the qualities most campaign strategists look for in a candidate.
No they don’t. Then again, a reluctance to seek office made a hero out of Cincinnatus.
But for all Kaine’s demurring, he remains a proven winner in Virginia and that puts him far ahead of other potential Democratic candidates, with a few exceptions, like Rep. Bobby Scott.
Even so, Kaine’s last statewide run was six years ago. He defeated a self-defeating Republican, Jerry Kilgore (who despite his failings on the stump, was right about Kaine in a number of ways, including his desire to raise taxes). I don’t expect Republicans will allow their eventual nominee to follow Kilgore’s path, or even that of George Allen in 2006 or Jim Gilmore in 2008. Still, being Virginia Republicans means one always has to be aware of their uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The mitigating factor against that is Kaine himself. His tenure as chairman of the Democratic National Committee has forced him to wade into policy debates on health care, the federal budget and taxation, the Wisconsin labor fight and much, more. He can’t hide from his statements or his actions. These are the gifts Jerry Kilgore lacked in 2005.
But is sitting in the Senate, and once again being in Mark Warner’s shadow, really what Kaine wants?
It’s well-known among Richmond’s political insiders that Kaine was within a hair’s breadth of being tabbed for the Obama ticket. Plans were made, background papers filed, contingencies arranged…everything was set for Kaine to accept the VP nomination, and then the Russians decided to roll the tanks into Georgia. Obama was already saddled with a thin foreign policy resume and he didn’t need a vice president with a similar liability. As a result, we’re all saddled with Joe Biden.
After Obama’s win, Kaine was briefly touted as a possible cabinet pick – perhaps as education secretary, or maybe the top slot at transportation. Instead, he was given the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee – not exactly a plum, but still a post that gave him nationwide status, presidential access and the ability to do a few of the things he does very well – like sticking knives into Republican backsides while smiling broadly and raising huge amounts of money.
Kaine may still think of a cabinet post, or perhaps an ambassadorship as a better fit. But that choice has essentially been taken away by those who believe he’s the Democrats’ best chance of retaining Jim Webb’s seat. And he is. The question, though, is whether his heart will ever be in it…and if he should win, whether he, like the famously reluctant office seeker Webb, will decide to head home after a single term.
