President Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election against Democratic nominee Joe Biden took a hit after the first of three presidential debates, according to three analyses of the post-debate betting markets, even as the Trump campaign billed the president’s performance as “GREAT” in a Wednesday fundraising text message to supporters.
Pointing to a “substantial” 5 percentage point drop in Trump’s odds of winning, Election Betting Odds’s Maxim Lott told the Washington Examiner that the post-debate betting markets “show Trump as the clear debate loser.” Election Betting Odds shows Biden’s chances of winning at 60%, with Trump’s at 38.5%.
“It seems that bettors think he turned off many moderate voters he needed to persuade with his flustered style, insults, and interruptions,” Lott said on Wednesday. He called it “rare to see such a big swing in the odds from a single event.”
Lott said that both candidates “had many weak moments” on the debate stage. Biden’s failure to condemn antifa or to say whether he would pack the Supreme Court stood out, as did Trump’s couching of his words condemning white nationalists by telling the far-right Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.”
A further point Lott noted was that “bettors probably liked seeing Biden avoid having many ‘senior moments,’ which some people had feared.”
He added, “Biden also came off as more dignified than Trump.”
Prediction market Smarkets on Wednesday saw Trump’s chances fall 4 percentage points to 38% after the debate, while Biden’s chances grew 5 points to 62%.
“Going into the debate, the advantage was Biden’s to lose, and there were fears from a Democratic perspective that a bad performance would play into President Trump’s hands,” Smarkets’s Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi said in a statement Wednesday. Smarkets’s exchange allows peer-to-peer betting and trading, meaning the odds reflect where bettors place their money, with no in-house weighting to distort the market.
“As predicted, Trump interrupted Biden frequently and made personal attacks on him and his family in an attempt to throw him off his game,” Bakhshi said. “However, the former VP was well-prepared for the attacks and held his ground, giving a solid performance.”
Biden’s Tuesday night conduct “seems to have inspired some faith” among Smarkets traders, Bakhshi said, citing wagers in Smarkets’s $5.5 million Next President market, predicting Biden’s rising chance of victory while Trump’s have slid.
Traders will be watching Biden’s “stamina … against Trump’s attacks, knowing that if he falters, he could end up boosting the president’s hopes of a second term,” he added.
Betfair Exchange traders wagered bets that showed Trump’s odds of victory falling 3 percentage points to 40% within an hour of the debate ending. Biden’s odds grew 4 points to 60% in the same period on the exchange.
.png)
“Both candidates will claim victory in the debate, but odds speak louder than words and Betfair’s Swing-O-Meter indicates that Biden’s chances of winning the election have improved while Trump has lost ground,” Betfair spokesman Darren Hughes said in a statement.
“Biden has strengthened his position as favorite to win the U.S. election during the first debate,” he added.
Bettors wagered more than $1.29 million on Biden and Trump during the debate, tipping the total bet on the U.S. election to date past $129 million on Betfair Exchange.
The biggest bet of the campaign so far on Betfair was placed on Biden on Sept. 27, to pay out $370,000 if he wins on Nov. 3, Betfair’s Tom Rawle confirmed to the Washington Examiner.
