(Update) Chinese ASAT Test

Aviation Week & Space Technology reports that “U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan. 11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile.” Jeffrey Lewis, executive director of the Managing the Atom Project at Harvard’s Belfer Center, reports on his blog, Arms Control Wonk, that the test is now “an open secret inside the US defense community.” He even takes a shot at identifying which satellite the Chinese shot down:

Taking a look at the Russian and Chinese satellites in that orbit (The two states are most likely to conduct an ASAT test), I see only half a dozen candidates that might have been shot down and one stands out: The FY-1C, an obsolete Chinese meteorological satellite launched in 1999.

Lewis goes on:

If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because “there is no arms race in space.”

Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government.

Read the whole thing here. UPDATE: AFP confirms earlier reports of a Chinese ASAT test. In addition AFP reports that the United States, Canada, and Australia have all “expressed concern” over the test to the Chinese authorities. What’s really interesting is that critics of the president’s new, more assertive space policy, or at least the media’s interpretation of it, have pointed to this resolution, which the Chinese introduced to the UN Conference on Disarmament, as evidence of a Chinese desire to make illegal “attacks on spacecraft by land-, sea-, and air-based systems,” and that the Chinese would have done so already if not for “US disinterest.” That seems to be wishful thinking now that it’s clear the Chinese have been working extensively on ASAT weapons systems. Lewis, who has been anything but hawkish on the threat from China’s space program, points out that no matter what the Chinese say, they “will simply not be credible partners in efforts to keep space peaceful.”

Related Content