Joe Biden has reason to be confident of his chances in the Iowa caucuses, according to a new poll.
Two weeks out from the first-in-the-nation contest on Feb. 3, Biden, 77, is the preferred 2020 Democratic presidential nominee for 24% of likely caucusgoers, a Focus on Rural America survey released Monday found.
While the former vice president’s support softened by a single percentage since the rural advocacy group last conducted the poll in September, he still has a 6-point advantage on his nearest rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, well outside the margin of error. The Massachusetts senator, 70, earns 8% of the vote, slipping by 5 percentage points since the fall — the most drastic decline of the crowded primary field.
The public opinion research, undertaken after Warren accused Sen. Bernie Sanders from Vermont of doubting whether a woman could win the White House, reported former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in third place with 16% support, a boost of 4 percentage points from last year. Sanders rounded out the top tier of contenders with 14%, up 5 percentage points.
Biden was also Iowa Democrats’ most preferred second candidate, ahead of Buttigieg, Warren, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Sanders among likely caucusgoers who would back another presidential hopeful if their favorite didn’t reach the 15% viability threshold needed to gain delegates.
Klobuchar, who notched up an extra 3 percentage points from September for 11% of the vote, was the candidate named “best for the needs and interests of rural Iowa.” Warren, Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg trailed the Midwesterner for the honor, bestowed on her following the New York Times endorsing both her and Warren.
[Related: New York Times says Biden and Sanders are too old to be president]
Although Biden is in front in this study, it represents only a snapshot of a competitive, fluid race for the right to challenge President Trump in the general election. According to the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll released earlier this month, Sanders is the preferred White House hopeful for 20% of likely caucusgoers. Warren is No. 2 with 17%, Buttigieg has 16%, and Biden is at 15%.
Pollsters for Focus on Rural America, founded by former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and Democratic strategist Jeff Link, surveyed 500 likely 2020 caucusgoers using cell phones and landlines between Jan. 15 and Jan. 18. Their results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
