Earlier this week, Germany’s Bertelsmann Foundation released the results of a new international public opinion survey assessing the current and future global leadership roles of nine key countries. Based on interviews with 9,000 people conducted in the United States, Russia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom during August-September 2007, the Bertelsmann study arrived at the following conclusions: Today, the United States is viewed by an average 81 percent of all respondents as the world’s leading power, followed by China (50 percent), Russia (39 percent), and the 27-nation EU (35 percent). Compared to a similar study conducted back in 2005, China (+5 percent) and especially Russia (+ 12 percent) are clearly seen on the rise. In contrast, only 61 percent believe that the United States will still hold on to its pole position in 2020. By then, China (57 percent) is expected to have almost caught up, followed by Russia (37 percent) and the EU (33 percent). It is interesting to note how respondents in different countries define what constitutes “a global power.” Overall, the respondents’ top-three ranking is as follows: Economic power and potential for growth: 59 percent; Political stability: 51 percent; Strong educational system / R&D sector: 47 percent. Interestingly, at only 25 percent, military power ranks last among seven power indicators, tied with “A social and cultural model that other societies seek to emulate.” The only striking exception in this regard is China, where 59 percent of the respondents view military might as the defining characteristic of a global power. In the United States, that same assessment is shared by 36 percent of the people interviewed, the survey’s second highest country rating. The Germans, in contrast, are the least “militaristic” people in that regard, with only 11 percent putting a premium on military strength. At the same time, though, German media were rather stunned to learn about another survey finding, namely that 49 percent of all Germans believe their country currently enjoys global power status. I would think that this rather surprising result is due to a variety of different “hard” and “soft” factors: Germany’s long-standing title as the world’s export champion; the fact that Germany held both the EU and the G8 rotating presidencies this year; and also the fact that Germany is the biggest demographic and economic power in the EU, which is increasingly viewed as a strong and cohesive international player around the world. Finally, based on the latest survey results, Josef Janning, the Bertelsmann Foundation’s Head of International Relations, issued a rather pessimistic outlook on the future of international relations:
One wonders if Janning isn’t hinting at a relationship between American power and a ‘kind of harmonious, balanced world order.’
