Donald Trump-endorsed Kari Lake is leading the field in the race for the Republican nomination for Arizona governor, but the former president’s pick is far from secure as the front-runner, according to a fresh poll.
Lake, a former local television news anchor, was leading with 29% support among likely GOP primary voters in a poll from OH Predictive Insights conducted April 4-5. But businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson was in contention with 22%. Former Rep. Matt Salmon trailed in third, with 11%, followed by businessman Steve Gaynor at 3%.
A whopping 35% of survey respondents said they were undecided about whom they would vote for in Arizona’s Aug. 2 gubernatorial primary, leaving the race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey unpredictable and potentially volatile. The poll’s margin of error was 4.4 percentage points.
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“Salmon needs to figure out how to gain some momentum, Lake needs to figure out a way to increase her base of support, Robson needs to not run out [of] money, and Gaynor needs to do something — anything to stave off irrelevancy,” OH Predictive Insights chief of research Mike Noble said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the survey showed a close battle for the GOP Senate nomination in Arizona as Republicans vie for the right to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.
State Attorney General Mark Brnovich led with 21%, followed by self-funding wealthy businessman Jim Lamon at 16%. Conservative populist Blake Masters was in third with 9%, and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard, Mick McGuire, garnered 6%. As with the GOP gubernatorial primary, a large plurality of Republican voters — 44% — are still undecided.
That factor, plus an endorsement Trump has yet to make, means the fight for the Republican Senate nomination remains wide open. Why might the former president’s seal of approval matter? According to this poll, more likely Republican primary voters said they supported Trump (39%) than said they supported the GOP (33%).
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“None of the candidates have been able to break away and define themselves in the Senate contest,” Noble said. “They will need to do a better job of convincing voters that they deserve to be the GOP nominee to take on Kelly in November.”
