Depending on which polling firm you look at, Joe Biden is on a path to win Pennsylvania easily in November — or Democrats are setting themselves up for a 2016 repeat of disappointment.
Pennsylvania is again likely to be a crucial state in deciding the presidential race. In 2016, the Keystone State, combined with Wisconsin and Michigan, handed President Trump the keys to the White House, with a combined vote total of under 80,000.
An NBC/Marist survey released on Wednesday found Biden with a 9-point lead over President Trump in the state, with over half, 53%, of voters there saying they plan on backing him this fall. Those numbers are largely a result of suburban voters backing the former vice president, with many citing Trump’s poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump’s favorability rating in the state is underwater as well, according to NBC/Marist. Fifty-two percent of voters there disapprove of his job performance, while 45% approve.
“With Trump’s job approval rating and favorability upside down, he needs to reshuffle the deck to close the gap,” said Marist College Institute for Public Opinion’s Lee M. Miringoff. “Trump’s best bet is on the economy to do just that.”
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state by less than 1 percentage point.
But the current state of the race in Pennsylvania remains unclear, with a Monmouth University poll released on Sept. 2 showing Biden leading with likely voters by just 1 to 3 points, a statistical tie.
“This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there,” said Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray. “It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”
That new poll constituted an 8-point shift in the race, fueled by older white men and minorities in the state now backing the president.
Both candidates are committing significant resources to the state, with Pennsylvania being one of the few states Biden has traveled to since the beginning of the general election. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence arrived at the PennEnergy Resources Natural Gas Producing Well in Freedom, Pennsylvania.
“Joe Biden has spent forty-seven years shipping American jobs overseas and now proposes policies that would further damage Pennsylvania workers and businesses, including a ban on fracking,” the Trump campaign said in a statement. “Only President Trump and Vice President Pence will stand up for our energy industry and defend jobs in the Keystone State.”
