The decennial redistricting follies have Richmond in a stir. Will the Democrats and their ink blots be adopted? Will the House GOP succeed in sending Democratic minority leader Ward Armstrong into retirement? Will Bob McDonnell shun his redistricting advisory panel? Won’t somebody please think of the children?
All of this makes for great wonky fun. But as Richmond Times-Dispatch columnist Jeff Schapiro is quick to note, all this hand waving is but a distraction from the real show, which will involve the Department of Justice, President Obama’s re-election strategy and even Bob McDonnell’s political future.
That’s a lot to hang on a few squiggles on a map. But considering that Virginia must submit any redistricting plan to the Justice Department for approval (as a result of a nasty habit it once had of systematically disenfranchising minority voters…and Republican voters, and those who didn’t toe the courthouse crowd’s line).
As Schapiro point out, it took eighteen months for the General Assembly to win approval of new district lines drawn after the 1980 census owing to Justice Department objections. No one in Richmond ought to be eager to replay that scenario, least of all in the House of Delegates, where members had to run for re-election for three consecutive years.
But could the Obama Justice Department decide that’s not their concern and instead, abide by the call of the General Assembly’s Legislative Black Caucus for another congressional district with “an ‘appropriate mix of minorities’”?
If so, then the fun may begin in earnest, and that’s where the President’s re-election strategy could come into play.
Mr. Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964. His coalition of the young, hopeful and others has largely fallen by the wayside in the two election cycles since then. Republicans have benefitted mightily from this. But if the President wants to carry Virginia again, he will need the people who showed up in 2008 to come out again. In droves. A redistricting fight over minority representation could be just the motivational tool he needs to ensure they go to the polls.
But that’s being cynical. Surely, no president, and certainly no Justice Department, would pick a fight just to help a President win a few electoral votes, right?
And then there’s Bob McDonnell. The Governor has a big role to play in this program – or more appropriately, his veto pen could be a star of the show. McDonnell could cast aside the General Assembly’s lines and suggest his own. This would not sit well with the worthies, who are firmly of the mindset that governors come and go, but they remain. Gubernatorial tinkering, or an outright rejection, would make his last months in office tough. Tim Kaine tough. He may go along to get along.
An additional twist comes from Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. Bolling is the all-but-declared Republican candidate for governor in 2013. In a press release this week, he called for the General Assembly to “…adopt bipartisan House and Senate redistricting plans and strongly consider recommendations by the Independent Bipartisan Advisory Commission on Redistricting.” That would be Bob McDonnell’s commission, the one he established to come up with districts that didn’t look like stains on a mattress. Bolling went further, stating that unless the Assembly adopted a plan that enjoyed broad support, the Governor should substitute his redistricting commission’s proposals instead. That’s pretty strong stuff from Bolling.
But strong stuff is what you should expect from a show that involves intrigue, revenge, power, money, and prime office space. Now go get your popcorn and watch this potboiler unfold.
