Anirban Basu is president and chief executive officer of Sage Policy Group, a Baltimore-based economic and policy consulting firm specializing in economic, fiscal and legislative analysis, program evaluation, and organizational and strategic development.
What will spring bring to the residential real estate market?
The spring will actually be quite active from the perspective of people looking at homes. I?m skeptical that it will be active from the perspective of people buying homes.
Why?
People are aware prices have fallen, and are aware there are bountiful choices in many neighborhoods, and this serves as an inducement for them to look.
But for most of those looking at homes, there?s an awareness that prices are falling, and when prices are falling, an optimal strategy is to wait. What are you looking to wait for? For prices to fall as far as far as possible. When they hear prices have stopped falling, you might see a surge into the marketplace, especially if interest rates are still low, which they may well be.
Are there any geographic areas or market sectors you think will do well?
The market for first-time homebuyers might pick up ? that implies Baltimore City, Baltimore County and other relatively urbanized areas. The reason the first-time buyer will be active is because they don?t have to worry about selling a current home to participate in the market. That?s a big deal, because a lot of people have to sell a home [first], so they do nothing.
