Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by one percentage point, 41-40, according to a new Morning Consult survey.
The poll was conducted from June 30 through the July 4 holiday, which comes soon after a private meeting between Attorney General Loretta Lynch and former President Bill Clinton was made public. The Lynch-Clinton meeting spawned new discussion and criticism about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server and personal email address as secretary of state.
On Tuesday, FBI Director James Comey said he would not recommend criminal charges be brought against her by the Justice Department. Morning Consult’s poll suggests the discussion of Clinton’s email could pose problems in the court of public opinion, and it’s unclear how Comey’s decision may alter voters’ minds.
But Morning Consult’s poll shows Clinton lost three percentage points since its last poll, which was conducted June 24-27. Polling during a holiday weekend can pose challenges for the survey’s reliability, but Clinton’s drop in the poll could portend future problems.
The poll reveals Clinton is underperforming opposite Trump compared to a generic “Democratic congressional candidate” squaring off against a Republican. The generic Democrat earned two percentage points more support, 43 points, against an unnamed Republican than Clinton garnered against Trump.
Part of Clinton’s deficiency may be due to independent voters, who gave Trump a slight advantage on Clinton. Trump earned the support of 33 percent of independents, while Clinton picked up the support of 32 percent of independents, and 35 percent of independents were undecided.
When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is added to the poll, Clinton maintains her one-percentage-point edge over Trump. Johnson garnered 11 percent support opposite Clinton and Trump, including 19 percent of independents.
The poll of 2,001 registered voters had a margin of error of two percentage points.
