Russia sees a decided risk of “possible armed conflicts” with NATO member states in Europe, according to one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s security advisers. Still, senior trans-Atlantic officials think the Kremlin might be targeting a smaller dictatorship.
Russian military activity around the borders of multiple NATO countries has increased in recent weeks, as Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has invoked the protection of the Kremlin as Belarusian security services shuttle migrants from the Middle East to the borders of their democratic neighbors. Those Russian military operations have alarmed Ukrainian officials, who fear another assault by Russian forces. Still, U.S. and European officials suspect Lukashenko also has cause to fear the Kremlin’s intentions.
“The level of threats at the border linked with possible armed conflicts and incidents at the state border is not declining,” Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Alexander Grebenkin told Russian media.
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“This is a military relationship … One that is been increasing Belarus’s dependence on Russia over decades,” said Julie Fisher, State Department special envoy for Belarus, on Monday at the Wilson Center. “So it is important not simply to look at the movement of forces in recent days or weeks … So the question of whether or not there’s only one reason for it, I think, would be a bit of an oversimplification of the situation.”
Fisher’s counterpart from the European Union put it more bluntly, suggesting Putin might be using the current controversies as an excuse to expand Russia’s military presence in Belarus, which has resisted the Kremlin’s efforts to implement a decades-old ‘union state’ agreement between Minsk and Moscow.
“I personally think that one should not only look on the Ukraine angle on this,” said Ambassador Dirk Schuebel, who leads the European Union’s delegation to Belarus, during the Wilson Center event. “It is, in general terms, in Russian interest to be militarily present in Belarus, and I would see it in that context in the first place.”
Lukashenko tried to keep Putin at arm’s length in 2019 when the Kremlin chieftain attempted to pressure the former Soviet satellite state into a closer political union with Moscow. U.S. and European efforts to insulate Belarus from Putin’s pressure collapsed last year when Lukashenko’s election fraud and subsequent crackdown on opposition leaders and protesters ended Western interest in a relationship with the regime.
“And let me also say there are no negotiations with the Lukashenko regime,” Scheubel said. “He created this crisis. He brought these people to Belarus by lying to them about easy access to the EU, and they are on Belarusian territory, so it is his responsibility now to solve the crisis and take care of these people.”
Russia and China have responded to the crisis by denouncing the countries that refuse to allow migrants to cross into the European Union from Belarus.
“This fully exposes the shocking hypocrisy of ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ Lithuania and some other countries claim to champion,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday. “We strongly urge Lithuania to stop using violence and take effective measures to protect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of the refugees.”
EU officials see the migrant crisis as a threat from both Moscow and Minsk.
“Belarus, with some political backing from Russia, is testing the EU’s solidarity,” Schuebel said. “We continue to monitor the implications for the security of the EU and the neighboring countries, and we must be ready to provide a sequent and united response.”
Russian officials, for their part, insist it is the Western countries using the migrant crisis as an occasion to stoke disputes with Russia, at possible risk of terrorist attacks.
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“There are risks that members of international terrorist and extremist organizations, as well as subversive activities and terror attacks tools, may infiltrate into Russia,” said Grebenkin, the Russian foreign policy adviser. ”It stems from the fact that the number of hotbeds of military-political instability near our border is increasing.”
