Scott Rasmussen has released today’s national tracking poll, and Rudy Giuliani has slipped all the way down to 13%. It’s now official – a graph of Rudy’s polling fortunes resemble a ski slope. Two questions spring to mind: How did it happen, and can Rudy bounce back? Taking them in order, I think Rudy’s fall traces back to two scandals that popped at once – Bernie Kerik’s indictment and Judith Nathan’s security detail. Both of these indignities simultaneously attacked Rudy’s biggest strength and his biggest weakness. Rudy’s biggest strength is his success as a mayor. The stuff with both Bernie and Judy brought Rudy’s reign over the-city-so-nice-they-named-it-twice into question. The scandals also raised some uncomfortable questions about Rudy’s morality. Rudy’s biggest weakness is his checkered personal life. Americans like to believe the person that they’re voting for is a good one. Why, even Bill Clinton had to make a “60 Minutes” appearance on the eve of the 1992 New Hampshire primary to assure worried Democrats that whatever pain he had caused in his marriage was something he deeply regretted and was permanently in his rearview mirror. His adoring wife sat by his side that night, launching snide ad hominem attacks on country singer Tammy Wynette and women who bake cookies. Can Rudy come back? I doubt it, but he does have one chance. Suggesting the unlikelihood of a Rudy renaissance, it appears the Republican electorate has decided that it doesn’t much care for America’s mayor. But perhaps Rudy could pull the McCain gambit. Maybe he’ll stay out of the spotlight, and the negatives of the three guys still slugging it out (Huckabee, Romney, and McCain) will all rise. And maybe their negatives will all rise higher than Rudy’s currently stratospheric negatives. I know it sounds trite, but this truly is the political year where anything can happen.
