DES MOINES, IOWA — Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney is largely taking a pass in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, creating an opportunity for one of his rivals to excel in the Hawkeye State and charge into New Hampshire as the conservative alternative to Romney.
Romney spent less than $200,000 so far in Iowa, compared with the $10 million he spent on advertising alone during his first presidential run in 2008, an investment that didn’t pay off given that he finished second in the caucuses, behind Mike Huckabee.
Romney built a much leaner campaign in Iowa this time. He’s relying more on volunteers than paid staffers and he has yet to make any major advertising buys, according to David Kochel, Romney’s top Iowa adviser.
“I don’t think Romney is required to win Iowa,” Kochel told The Washington Examiner. “Iowa has more to do with having wind at our back going into New Hampshire.”
With Romney barely paying attention to Iowa, other presidential contenders see an opportunity.
“What Iowa has now become is the first fight in the battle of who will become the anti-Romney,” said Dennis J. Goldford, a Drake University political science professor and author of “The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event.”
The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses mark the first opportunity for the “anti-Romney candidates” to prove their viability to voters because the caucuses require candidates to demonstrate that they can build and run an effective organization.
Businessman Herman Cain, who was propelled to the top tier of candidates by winning a Florida straw poll in September, knows he needs a top-three finish in Iowa, according to Steve Grubbs, his Iowa campaign chairman.
“If you think about Obama in 2008, Iowa made him president,” Grubbs said, noting that Obama’s early win in the Hawkeye State kept him afloat nationally while then-Sen. Hillary Clinton was dominating New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“The generally accepted view is that there are three tickets out of Iowa,” Grubbs said. “Our belief is that the Cain train is getting one of those tickets to New Hampshire.”
Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, is fighting for the same religious conservatives in Iowa as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Goldford said.
Bachmann — an Iowa native who won the state’s straw poll in August — has bet her entire campaign on Iowa. It’s a risky bet: A poor showing at the caucuses could doom her campaign. A rebound in New Hampshire is unlikely given that her staff there resigned en masse recently.
Perry’s campaign, by contrast, is tamping down expectations for the caucuses even as he ramps up the time and money he’s spending in Iowa, including $170,000 on his first TV ad of the campaign.
“Our analysis of Iowa is not that different from Romney,” said Bob Haus, one of Perry’s top Iowa advisers. “He’s got to get through Iowa intact so he can get to New Hampshire.”
Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is working Iowa intensely, hoping a strong finish there will keep his campaign alive beyond January. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are also hoping to energize their campaigns in Iowa so they can take on Romney in New Hampshire.
