According to Nate Silver, the current delegate count for the Republican nomination is:
Trump 391 delegates (43 percent of total)
Cruz 304 (34 percent)
Rubio 148 (16 percent)
Kasich 37 (4 percent)
Unbound/Other Candidate 26 (3 percent)
This is an accurate account of the contests so far. But one could add the fact that a solid number of delegates will be going to the Cleveland convention unbound. In particular North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa will send all of their delegates unbound to Cleveland. That’s a total of 46 delegates. Moreover, Pennsylvania will send 54 of its 71 delegates unbound. The three members of the RNC from Wyoming will also go unbound. That’s a total of 103 delegates that nobody can win in a presidential preference primary or caucus.
There have been no contests yet for these delegates, but as there will never be a contest for them, we could add them to the count. The numbers change thus:
Trump 391 (39 percent)
Cruz 304 (30 percent)
Rubio 148 (15 percent)
Unbound/Other Candidate 129 (13 percent)
Kasich 37 (4 percent)
There will be a total of 2,472 delegates at the national convention, and so far 1,009 have either been allocated to a presidential candidate or will not be allocated at all. That leaves 1,463 delegates left to be allocated. To receive a majority of all delegates, Trump would have to win 58 percent of the remaining delegates.
That is a very steep hill to climb. And expect it to get steeper next week. Trump should do well in Mississippi, but he will probably struggle in Hawaii and Idaho, while Michigan’s delegates will probably split three or even four ways. If Trump does not win at least 58 percent of the delegates next week, he will have to average more than that thereafter.
Moreover, 72 delegates in Colorado, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Wyoming are not selected according to presidential preference primaries or caucuses. Rather, the state or territorial parties selects them, and can choose not to bind them. While Trump may win some of them, it is probably unlikely he will win three-fifths of them—as the sorts of people making those choices do not fit the profile of the average Trump voter.
This underscores an important point: the best way to avoid a contested convention is for all of a candidate’s major opponents to drop out. If one or more stay in, and fight for delegates in every contest, then it becomes difficult for anybody to win a clean majority of delegates.
Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard and the author of A Republic No More: Big Government and the Rise of American Political Corruption.
