WSJ/NBC Poll: Something for Everyone

First, it’s worth noting that the poll sample is slightly skewed against Republicans. That said, a look at the underlying data shows how conflicted voters are. By a margin of 35-23, voters consider themselves more conservative than liberal. By a margin of 34-18 they would prefer the next president to be conservative. But even though 55 percent of voters consider Obama liberal and 59 percent consider Clinton liberal, both candidates lead Senator McCain narrowly. By a margin of 52-33, voters say the “most responsible thing we can do” in Iraq is to withdraw most troops by early 2009, as opposed to remaining in the country until it stabilizes. Yet Senator McCain is the only candidate whom more voters see as having the right approach than the wrong approach to Iraq. (Interestingly, Obama has the worst rating of the three on this question.) When asked if the next president should follow a similar or different approach to President Bush, “different approach” wins 76 to 17. And 77 percent of respondents think McCain would follow President Bush’s policies somewhat or very closely. Still, McCain is running about even with his Democratic opponents. Overall, the picture is one of an electorate turned off to Republicans and the Bush administration, and seeking change, but still wary of liberalism. Right now, the voters are willing to try the nominees whose liberalism they mistrust, because they want something different from what they’ve had the last eight years. The task for Obama or Clinton is to attach McCain to George Bush as closely as possible, while downplaying their liberal agendas. The task for McCain is to show voters that he’s different enough from George Bush to again put trust in a candidate who’s basically conservative. A key for all the candidates: By a margin of 48-32, voters say they’re more concerned about a president’s leadership style and trustworthiness than his or her policies and ideas for the future.