Republicans are spooked by stunning Democratic upsets in Alabama and Pennsylvania, but maybe the close calls that have been piling up should bother them more.
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District was added to that list Tuesday night. Republicans won this race, denying Democrats another hoped for upset. But the margin of victory wasn’t very impressive.
Republican Debbie Lesko received 52.6 percent of the vote in a district where her party boasts a 17-point registration advantage. President Trump won there by 20 points, Mitt Romney by 25. Democrats haven’t even fielded House candidates in recent election cycles.
Moreover, the Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee sank nearly $1 million into this race to pull Lesko across the finish line. Democrats spent lightly, although their nominee Hiral Tipirneni did outraise Lesko.
In Georgia’s 6th Congressional District last year, Republican Karen Handel beat Democrat Jon Ossoff 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. That was surely a win. But Republican Tom Price won re-election in that district, which had been safely in GOP hands since Newt Gingrich, with 61.7 percent of the vote the previous week.
Republican Greg Gianforte ran slightly behind Ryan Zinke in the race to fill Montana’s lone House seat after Zinke was tapped for secretary of interior. Gianforte was elected with 50 percent of the vote, a 6-point margin over his Democratic opponent. Zinke took 55.4 percent in his last re-election.
Ron Estes won 52.2 percent in a special congressional election in Kansas, beating the Democrat but again not exactly a landslide margin in a usually safe Republican district. Mike Pompeo was last reelected to the seat with 60.67 percent of the vote.
Democrats are spending an awful lot of money on moral victories, Republicans crowed after each of those special election wins. That’s true. And the two big upsets, both by the narrowest of margins, required Republicans to have a candidate as bad as Roy Moore or Democrats to have one as good as Conor Lamb (the latter without a primary).
But Republicans have now underperformed in a number of, races win or lose. This suggests high Democratic engagement, disaffection with Trump, and possible problems when the party has to defend its majorities this fall.
