‘Rays of hope’ for Ukraine if Kyiv defenders can survive weekend

Gunfire and explosions filled the night around Kyiv as shown by video published to social media by citizens and reporters amid Russia’s apparent inability to shut down the internet and other telecommunications infrastructure.

“We are stopping the horde as best as we can. The situation in Kyiv is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our citizens,” Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said early Saturday local time.

Hours earlier, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry likewise tweeted an exhortation for citizens of Kyiv to “make Molotov cocktails” — a call echoed by at least one radio host who reportedly broadcast “instructions” on how to build the incendiaries. Civilians photographed themselves taking up arms in response to an earlier appeal from Zelensky, who lamented that other European powers are not “ready to fight with us” but exulted in each new pledge of ammunition or other aid.

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“Situation looks very worrisome but with rays of hope,” a European official told the Washington Examiner. “Worrisome because Russia has strategic advantage and because of sheer numbers and air control. But Ukrainians’ determination and the spirit gives rays of hope. If Kyiv won’t fall into [the] aggressor’s hands until Monday, that would be [a] victory.”

A U.S. defense official ventured to observe Friday that “the Russians have lost a little bit of their momentum” — a shift from Washington’s initial hesitance to comment on the progress of the invasion in the first days after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the assault. “Putin didn’t account for everything, and he didn’t account for the bravery and resolve of the people of Ukraine,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters Friday.

Russian forces have launched a three-pronged attack on Ukraine. Two of those “axes of advance,” as U.S. officials term them, have targeted strategically significant areas of eastern Ukraine, where they have fought a low-profile conflict since 2014, but the third focused on the capital city. Western officials had watched the mobilization of troops around Ukraine with an acute sense of Russia’s military superiority, but Russian forces were unable to seize Kyiv or any other city in the first two days of the offensive.

“What’s very clear and visible is that Mr. Putin’s plan seemed to be to conduct the warfare that he has seen on TV — the warfare that the U.S. has been able to carry out in some places quite successfully,” a senior European official, who also spoke to the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity, observed Friday evening. “Every additional day that there is war, the morale of the people and the fighters actually is rather improving because they see that even though the Russians are coming on really hard, it’s actually doable — they’re not invincible, the Russians.”

One viral video showcased a now-famous “cheerful Ukrainian soldier” who reveled in sending a message to the Russian invaders. “Dudes, you are f*****!” the man said in Russian. “You’ve stopped for now. We’re fine. We’re pulling up our reserves. We’ve got aviation. We have tanks. We’ve got everything! Your ass is ours, fellows.”

The soldier’s braggadocio understates the Russian threat, relative to most assessments, but the European officials agree that the passage of time has downsides for the Russian invaders despite their ability to bring larger forces into the fray.

The “key moment” of the campaign thus far, sources argued, occurred Thursday when Russian paratroopers flew in from Belarus on a mission to seize the Gostomel airfield on the outskirts of Kyiv. The battle raged for hours, but Ukrainian forces managed to recapture the base, depriving the Russian military of the opportunity to land a larger force at the airfield and then storm the nearby capital.

“They expected to reach Kyiv and probably surround it fairly quickly, probably in 24 hours, and their engine has started to stutter,” the senior European official said.

That’s not merely a metaphor, as the official estimated that Russian forces will soon be low on ammunition and perhaps fuel. The pillaging of local gas stations could alleviate some of that pressure, “but ammunition they cannot get just from every hunting store,” the senior European official said. “While you are resupplying, you are relatively easy targets.”

A longer or more violent campaign could spur additional Western support for Ukraine while putting Putin under pressure at home. The Kremlin chief justified the campaign as a necessary operation to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians and Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow has waged a low-profile war since 2014, but he stunned the world by announcing his plan to oust Zelensky on the day of the assault.

As the invasion unfolded, “anti-war protests took place in over 50 Russian cities on Thursday night, with almost 2,000 arrested,” according to the Moscow Times, an independent Russian media outlet. Price, the State Department spokesman, saluted the “heroism” of the protesters in terms that might heighten Putin’s anxiety about the domestic backlash.

“The citizens of Russia who are peacefully protesting, including in Putin’s own hometown and in dozens of other cities across the Russian Federation, are rejecting his violence against the people of Ukraine,” Price said Friday. “The fact that dissent of this nature — peaceful protests, peaceful demonstrations — are quashed and crushed in short order, that is symptomatic of a deep-seated insecurity on the part of President Putin, of those around him.”

The outbreak of the protests is at least a small justification of Zelensky’s appeal to the Russian people in the hours before the invasion, when he mocked Putin’s allegation that he, a Jewish grandchild of a Soviet veteran of World War II, harbors Nazi beliefs or wants to destroy eastern Ukrainian neighborhoods that are home to family.

“The people of Ukraine want peace,” Zelensky said this week. “And if the leadership of Russia doesn’t want to sit down at the table with us for the sake of peace, maybe they will sit down at the table with you. Do Russians want war? I would like to answer that question, but the answer depends only on you.”

The senior European official acknowledged that “the tolerance of Russian society” for the conflict, even the extent to which they know the nature of the fight, is uncertain.

“This is the biggest unknown to me, and on the other hand, this is something that is critical,” the senior European official said. “It certainly seems as though Putin thought he could fool his nation and get away with it.”

Price, the State Department spokesman, suggested that Putin will try to hide the casualties that Russian forces sustain during the fight. If the war degenerates into a bloody bombardment of major cities such as Kyiv, the secrets will be harder to keep.

“I’m trying not to be naive here. I think the chances that the Russians would simply pull back, like any hour from now or any day, without getting something significant are really, really slim,” the senior European official said. “The big unknown here is the domestic factor — how long the general public can be kept in the dark and what’s the threshold for them to actually start asking questions that nobody wants them to ask.”

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In any case, that’s a question for another day — if the defenders of Kyiv live to see it. “This night will be difficult, very difficult,” Zelensky said Friday. “But the morning will come.”