DES MOINES, Iowa — Less than three weeks out from the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses, which kick off Democratic nomination voting, the bulk of voters are undecided in the increasingly fluid race.
According to the latest Des Moines Register poll, which Bernie Sanders’s campaign says reflects a surge by the Vermont senator, 40% of likely Democratic caucusgoers had made up their mind. Almost 50% of respondents, of whom 20% named Sanders as their first choice, said they could change their minds before the caucus.
That, plus the 13% who said they don’t support any one candidate yet, means more than a majority of Iowa Democrats planning on caucusing in February haven’t decided on a candidate. A CBS poll of Iowa and New Hampshire released Jan. 6 similarly found 31% of respondents certain of their candidate choice.
While voters such as Jane Choquette, 74, are certain they’ll turn out in a general election, they’re torn on who to nominate for the daunting task of trying to remove President Trump, a reviled incumbent, from the White House.
“I feel that I am probably much more liberal and I probably am going more towards the liberal side, so I am an Elizabeth Warren supporter too,” Choquette, a retiree who lives in Des Moines, told the Washington Examiner after attending a speech by a top-tier 2020 Democrat, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Choosing who to back is “very difficult,” Choquette said. “And I feel that whoever becomes the candidate, I would support them.”
Such uncertainty is unprecedented in the last three election cycles.
In January 2016, 14% of Democrats were undecided on a candidate, in what became one of the narrowest caucuses in the state’s history. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Sanders by 0.25%. A RealClearPolitics average of polls in the last 10 days before that year’s caucus found Clinton holding a 4% lead over Sanders — meaning Sanders still managed to win over a number of Democrats in the last few days.
In 2008, the number of undecideds was even fewer in a much more crowded field. According to a poll taken in late December 2007, 7% of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers were undecided. Despite a number of Democrats telling pollsters they were certain of their choice, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama still managed to pull off an upset victory over his senatorial colleague from New York, Clinton, who finished in third place.
The closest comparison to the current voter dynamics is the 2004 primary when 70% of Iowa Democrats were undecided on who they would definitely support a month out. That year, polling remained chaotic in the 30 days leading up to the caucuses.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at one point took a 10-point lead over his closest competitor, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who would later win a decisive victory in the caucus, had 14% support 30 days out from the Iowa caucuses.
