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RUSSIA’S ‘INVINCIBLE’ ARSENAL: In his speech to the Russian Federal Assembly in Moscow yesterday, President Vladimir Putin claimed that his weapons engineers had successfully produced a new crop of cutting-edge nuclear missiles and drones that cannot be defended against. Here’s a quick guide, according to Putin’s own description: The Sarmat ICBM: Putin says Russia will be replacing its heaviest intercontinental missile with an even heavier version that has a longer range. “Weighing over 200 tons, it has a short boost phase, which makes it more difficult to intercept for missile defense systems,” Putin said yesterday. “Sarmat will be equipped with a broad range of powerful nuclear warheads, including hypersonic, and the most modern means of evading missile defense.” The hypersonic Avangard: Putin said the Sarmat ICBM can be armed with an Avangard boost-glide weapon that he claimed is “absolutely invulnerable” to any air or missile defenses. “The use of new composite materials has made it possible [to fly] to its target like a meteorite, like a ball of fire,” Putin said. “The temperature on its surface reaches 1,600–2,000 degrees Celsius but the cruise block is reliably guided,” he added. The Kinzhal hypersonic aircraft: Calling it “the only one of its kind in the world,” Putin described the Kinzhal (which means dagger) as “a high-precision hypersonic aircraft missile system” that can deliver nuclear and conventional warheads in a range of over 1,200 miles. “The unique flight characteristics of the high-speed carrier aircraft allow the missile to be delivered to the point of discharge within minutes,” Putin said. “The missile flying at a hypersonic speed, 10 times faster than the speed of sound, can also maneuver at all phases of its flight trajectory, which also allows it to overcome all existing and, I think, prospective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems.” Nuclear-powered cruise missile: Putin said his engineers designed a nuclear rocket engine that can give their cruise missiles unlimited range. He described it as “a small-scale heavy-duty nuclear energy unit that can be installed in a missile like our latest X-101 air-launched missile or the American Tomahawk missile. … It is a low-flying stealth missile carrying a nuclear warhead, with almost an unlimited range, unpredictable trajectory and ability to bypass interception boundaries.” Again, Putin said, “it is invincible.” Underwater nuclear drone: Finally, Putin said Russia has developed an unmanned submersible vehicle, which he said can travel intercontinentally at extreme depths and at a speed “multiple times higher than submarines, torpedoes and surface ships.” “It is really fantastic,” he gushed. “They are quiet, highly maneuverable and have hardly any vulnerabilities for the enemy to exploit. There is simply nothing in the world capable of withstanding them.” Putin said the underwater drones can be armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads, “which enables them to engage various targets, including aircraft groups, coastal fortifications and infrastructure.” DO THE WEAPONS EXIST? There seems to be little doubt among Western experts that Russia has been working on all these technologies, but are divided about how battle-ready the systems are. Putin claims the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been successfully tested, and are now in “trial service at the airfields” of Russia’s Southern Military District. “Let me assure you that we have all this, and it is working well,” Putin said In an exclusive interview after his speech with NBC’s Megyn Kelly, Putin expanded on the claim. “Every single weapons system that I have discussed today easily surpasses and avoids a missile defense system,” Putin said, adding “some of them still have to be fine-tuned and worked on. Others are already available to the troops and battle-ready.” When Kelly pressed Putin about the most dubious claim — that Russia has developed a nuclear propulsion system for its missiles — the Russian president responded, “All of those tests were successful. It’s just each of these weapons systems are at a different stage of readiness. One of them is already on combat duty. It’s available to the troops.” EXPERT DOUBTS: The experts I surveyed yesterday were the most skeptical about whether Moscow really has a nuclear rocket engine, something which, by the way, would spew radioactivity from its small reactor as it streaks across the sky. “They probably don’t have that capability now, but they could be trying to get it,” David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security told me. “The cruise missile thing is just irresponsible. That they would spread radioactive material around the world in some misguided fantasy about threats from the United States.” DO THEY CHANGE THE NUCLEAR CALCULUS? Assuming that everything Putin says is true, it still doesn’t change the balance of power between the U.S. and Moscow. While Putin made a big show of saying these new weapons are unstoppable, the fact is the U.S. has never had a defense against an all-out nuclear strike from Moscow. The weapons he describes would be of use only if Russia actually fought a nuclear war, which given America’s robust arsenal would result in certain annihilation of both sides. Russia’s stockpile of ICBMs alone would be enough to overwhelm America’s missile shield, which is designed the protect against “onesies and twosies” from North Korea or Iran. “If Putin was worried about penetrating our missile defenses, all he has to do is saturate them,” Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution told me. “Right now we have 44 interceptors in Alaska and California, and that’s the extent of our capability, and we probably fire several at one incoming warhead. So after he has sent 10 or 20 warheads to the United States, we’re out of interceptors. ARE WE IN A NEW ARMS RACE? No. The U.S. is embarked on a 30-year program to modernize all three legs of America’s nuclear triad of bombers, submarines and land-based ICBMs, at a cost of over $1.2 trillion. That’s not going to change. The Pentagon’s new Nuclear Posture Review recommends changing about two-dozen submarine warheads to a low-yield variant to send a message to Moscow, but that can be done easily as the warheads are routine updates at little cost. Russia may be in an arms race, but it’s racing with itself. At the Pentagon, spokeswoman Dana White says Putin’s new nukes came as no surprise, and were accounted for in the Nuclear Posture Review. “The American people should rest assured that we are fully prepared.” And at the State Department, spokeswoman Heather Nauert said “U.S. defense capabilities are and will remain second to none … we’re moving forward to modernize our nuclear arsenal and ensure that our capabilities remain unmatched.” Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: Unusually high winds have forced the closing of federal government offices in Washington, including the Pentagon. The Office of Management and Budget sent out a notice this morning that emergency and telework-ready employees are required to work and “must follow their agency’s policies, including written telework agreements.” WILL HE STAY OR WILL HE GO? We’ve seen this movie before, but we never know exactly how it will end. High-level leaks from the White House say a key official is on the outs and the leakers even name the replacement. But in the case of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson last year, it didn’t come to pass. Now NBC is reporting that national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster may return to a military job after friction with his boss President Trump. White House principal deputy press secretary Raj Shah gave the typical “non-denial denial” when questioned about the NBC report. “We frequently face rumor and innuendo about senior administration officials,” Shah said in a statement. “There are no personnel announcements at this time.” Stay tuned. JAVELINS TO UKRAINE: The State Department yesterday announced the potential sale of 210 portable anti-tank Javelin missiles and 37 launch units, part of a $47 million deal, to Ukraine. The prime contractor is Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture. The weapons should help the Ukrainian military fight against a Russian-backed separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. That conflict, which followed with the Russian annexation of Crimea, sent relations between Russia and the West spiraling to “a low point” of the post-Cold War era. Trump’s authorization of the military sales escalates U.S. confrontation with Russia in a key theater. THORNBERRY: PUTIN AIMS TO THWART NUKE PLAN: Putin’s boasting about his new nukes may be an opening salvo in new political and cyber meddling aimed at undermining the Trump administration’s new nuclear weapons plan, Rep. Mac Thornberry said in his address Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s part of their standard playbook” harkening back to Soviet active-measure campaigns that used covert political operations against the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to Europe, Thornberry said. “Nobody should be surprised that they would try to influence an election here, that they would try to influence a key strategic decision here, and use all sorts of methods to try to do that,” Thornberry said. “Of course Putin’s speech this morning may be a little part of it but I suspect we are going to see much more sophisticated methods coming from Russia to try to influence the decisions that are required to implement this Nuclear Posture Review.” The Russians have already hacked and used online bot armies to influence the 2016 presidential election, and U.S. intelligence officials warn that it will likely target the upcoming midterm elections. NO FEAR OF THE U.S.: But it remains unclear how the Trump administration might counter the Russian efforts. Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee were angered this week when Adm. Mike Rogers, the U.S. Cyber Command chief, informed them that Trump has not ordered any retaliation against Russia for its cyber meddling. On Thursday, it was committee Republicans’ turn to vent at Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, the nominee Trump has picked to replace Rogers. “We have officials who have come before this committee in an open session saying ‘Nope, we get hit and we don’t retaliate. We don’t retaliate against the Russians, the North Koreans, the Chinese. What’s your thought on that and should we start cranking up the costs of the cyber attacks on our nation?” Sen. Dan Sullivan asked during the confirmation hearing. “What do you think our adversaries think right now? If you do a cyber attack on America what is going to happen to them?” “Basically, I would say right now they do not think that much will happen to them,” Nakasone said, echoing Rogers’ testimony from Tuesday. “They don’t fear us. It is not good, senator.” Nakasone, who now heads the Army’s cyber operations, is likely a shoe-in for the CYBERCOM job. He told senators that a new cyber warfare doctrine could lay out a blueprint for responding to Russia and others, and he said it could also deter further hacking. Sen. Ben Sasse said the government is “failing” the public and that the lack of a U.S. cyber response dates back to the Obama administration and the Chinese hack of the Office of Personnel Management, which resulted in the breach of records for millions of government workers. “At the top of the executive and legislative level we are not responding in any way that is adequate to the challenge we face. In cyber war, we are just playing cyber defense,” Sasse said. SOMALIA’S BLEAK OUTLOOK: Last week, a U.S. airstrike took out three alleged Al Shabaab fighters in Somalia, in what was the latest in a long string of stepped up operations against terrorists in the country. The military effort may be working but the long-term prospects for Somalia remain bleak, said Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, who just returned from a trip to the country. “The bottom line is we are effectively disrupting Al Shabaab but in terms of building a stable entity and country that can take care of its own forces, that’s a long way off and it’s a real challenge right now,” Reed told a gathering of reporters in his Capitol Hill office. “The government is perceived by many people as corrupt and not serving their ends. Al Shabaab ironically is perceived as being brutal but effective in terms of allowing passage,” Reed said. “Al Shabaab taxes people, they pay the taxes. They can adjudicate claims where the government seems to be just really a group of very wealthy people in Mogadishu who are profiting because of trade and other factors.” Meanwhile, local and African forces are unable to clear and hold territory. A coalition called the African Union Mission in Somalia pushed Al Shabaab from the country’s capital Mogadishu but scaled back operations last year. “They’re more located on forward-operating bases, they’re not going out a lot. The Somali national army is not particularly well trained,” Reed said. Trump dramatically increased the tempo of U.S. airstrikes in Somalia last year. Now, U.S. Africa Command is weighing whether to beef up its train, advise and assist mission, Reed said. “I think that is part of the debate internally right now in AFRICOM. Do we train some specialized units? But I think the notion of going in like we’ve done in Afghanistan and trying to train a national army that will fully replace, etc., I don’t think that is on the table,” he said. “The issue is certainly not just more troops on the ground, the issue is the kind of fundamental reform in governance and preparing effective Somali forces to take the field.” SOMALIA 25 YEARS AGO AND TODAY: The trip was not Reed’s first visit. As a congressman he flew into the country twice in 1993, the last time coming just weeks before the infamous Black Hawk Down incident. Two helicopters carrying Army special operators were shot down by rebels in Mogadishu that year and 18 were killed, which led to the U.S. pulling out. “Twenty-five years ago standing on the airfield in Mogadishu, I didn’t think 25 years later I’d be flying back in to visit SEALs and special operators,” Reed said. In 1993, Reed wrote a House Intelligence Committee report on his visit and described a tense Mogadishu controlled by heavily armed Marines. “The convoy stopped as a stalled Somali car blocked our way. Instinctively, the Marines in the vehicle ahead dismounted with guns drawn and in an anxiety-driven fury screamed out to the Somalis ‘move, move, move,’ ” Reed wrote at the time. Today, the city has seen some building and some Somalis have prospered, but little has changed for locals. “It is a very, very fragile country. We haven’t made a lot of progress since we went in there,” Reed said on Thursday. But the U.S. military operation has changed from the multinational humanitarian effort, which was ended after it devolved into the fighting that killed the soldiers in 1993. “That was all sort of ad hoc on the move and then the decision was made that that multinational presence couldn’t be sustained so we withdrew,” Reed said. “Now, our military presence is much more sophisticated. It’s special operations forces, they are targeted not on a big scope of nation-building but a very narrow scope of disrupt terrorist activities, particularly those that could pose an external threat.” REED FUN FACT: Even senators need some downtime and Reed told reporters he has always been a movie buff. His favorite? “Blades of Glory,” starring Will Ferrell and Jon Heder as a pair of banned figure skaters who return to competition as a pairs team. “It’s just really great. Then you just go ‘Talladega Nights,’ you go all the way down the list … I guess also too of course ‘Anchorman’ is probably the best of all time,” Reed said. Word has it that Reed might have even turned down a cameo in a Ferrell comedy. An appearance would not have been an unprecedented move. The Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. John McCain, made a brief appearance in the movie “Wedding Crashers,” the 2005 romantic comedy with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn.
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STATE SPOX SPARS WITH RUSSIAN REPORTERS: At yesterday’s State Department briefing, Nauert rebuffed a question from a Russian TV reporter after the reporter pushed back on Nauert’s suggestion that a video from the Russian government showed the country’s nuclear warheads hitting Florida. “It’s certainly concerning to see your government, to see your country put together that kind of video that shows the Russian government attacking the United States,” Nauert told the reporter. “That’s certainly a concern of ours. I don’t think that’s very constructive nor is it responsible.” A second reporter, who identified herself as affiliated with Russian TV, rejected Nauert’s suggestion that Russia was attacking the U.S. in the video. “You’re from Russian TV, too? OK. Enough said then, I’ll move on,” the State Department spokeswoman told the reporter. PARADE OOPS: Trump may be unable to attend his “grand military parade” if the plan to have it on Veterans Day holds firm. Trump is expected to be in Paris along with 79 other world leaders at a summit on that day, Nov. 11, according to CNBC. Asked about the potential schedule conflict, Pentagon spokeswoman White said, “Regarding any scheduling conflict, I would have to refer you to the White House, regarding the president’s schedule. But we are looking towards November 11th, around Veterans Day, and also possibly in conjunction with the World War I centennial celebrations. So it would be a celebration, not only of our currently serving servicemembers, but also those of the past. “ THE RUNDOWN Air Force Times: Next leader of Global Strike Command nominated Defense One: Putin Just Gave Trump the Arms Race He Sought Daily Beast: Secrets of the Afghan Peace Talks Business Insider: I watched an M109 Paladin fire and the shock wave hurt my body — here’s the video DoD Buzz: A-10 Vs. F-35 Showdown Still Coming — And Could Happen This Spring Defense News: US senators want vote to end support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen war Army Times: Countering WMDs cannot be on SOCOM alone, experts contend Breaking Defense: DoD Boosts Hypersonics 136% In 2019: DARPA Navy Times: US Navy receives 12th littoral combat ship, the Manchester Foreign Policy: The Chinese Navy Can Make North Korean Sanctions Bite Military Times: What is DARPA doing in Ukraine? New York Times: South Korea Tells U.S. It Will Send Envoy to North Korea Reuters: Tillerson to make first trip to Africa as top U.S. diplomat USA Today: There are nearly 16,000 nuclear weapons in the world — and Russia, U.S. hold more than 90% Military Times: DHS offers to drop deportation case against wife of 7th Special Forces Group vet |
CalendarFRIDAY | MARCH 2 8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. The Mitchell Space Breakfast Series with Maj. Gen. Joseph Guastella, Director of Integrated Air, Space, Cyberspace, and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operations, at Air Force Space Command. mitchellaerospacepower.org 9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Reuniting Ukraine through International Cooperation: Options in Donbas with Amb. Kurt Volker, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. hudson.org MONDAY | MARCH 5 12 noon. Senate Visitor Center 201. Ending the North Korea standoff. defensepriorities.org TUESDAY | MARCH 6 6 a.m. 920 Jones Branch Dr. Cyber-Enabled Emerging Technologies Symposium with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, and Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, U.S. Cyber Command Deputy Commander. 8 a.m. 1315 K St. NW. McAleese/Credit Suisse 2019 “Defense Programs” Conference with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson; Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Sen. Roger Wicker; Rep. Adam Smith; Gen. Glenn Walters, assistant Marine Corps commandant; and others. mcaleese.com 9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Hearing on worldwide threats with Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, and Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in Africa with Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, commander of U.S. Africa Command. armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2154. Subcommittee hearing examining the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. oversight.house.gov 1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A discussion with Robert Citino, author of “The Wehrmacht’s Last Stand.” csis.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee hearing on the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces with James Geurts, Assistant Secretary of the Navy; Vice Adm. William Merz, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations; and Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, Commanding General Marine Corps Combat Development Command. armedservices.house.gov 2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Aviation Programs with Vice Adm. Paul Grosklags, Commander of Naval Air Systems Command; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, Marine Corps Deputy Commandant For Aviation; and Rear Adm. Scott Conn, Director of Navy Air Warfare. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on Marine Corps Readiness Posture with Lt. Gen. Brian Beaudreault, Deputy Commandant; Lt. Gen. Michael Dana, Deputy Commandant; and Lt. Gen. Rex McMillian, Commander of Marine Forces Reserve. armedservices.house.gov WEDNESDAY | MARCH 7 7:30 a.m. 1250 S Hayes St. Genus Machines: The Next Decade of Artificial Intelligence. defenseone.com 8 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Michael J. Zak Grand Strategy Lecture. cnas.org 9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Climate Change and Conflict: New Research for Defense, Diplomacy, and Development. wilsoncenter.org 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Assessing Military Service Acquisition Reform with Bruce Jette, Assistant Secretary of the Army; James Geurts, Assistant Secretary of the Navy; and Will Roper, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force. armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. House 140. Subcommittee Hearing on the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget for the Navy and Marine Corps with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps; and Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. appropriations.house.gov 10:30 a.m. Dirksen 608. Department of Defense Audit and Business Operations Reform at the Pentagon with DOD Comptroller David Norquist and John Gibson, DOD Chief Management Officer. budget.senate.gov 11:45 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE. A Conversation on the 2019 NDAA With Rep. Mike Gallagher. heritage.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program with Vice Adm. Mathias Winter, Program Executive Officer of the F-35 Joint Program Office; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, Marine Corps Deputy Commandant; Rear Adm. Scott Conn, Director of Navy Air Warfare; and Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans. armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on China in Africa: The New Colonialism? foreignaffairs.house.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on U.S. Strategic Forces Posture and the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request with Gen. John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and John Rood, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. armedservices.house.gov THURSDAY | MARCH 8 9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Mobility and Transportation Command Posture with Gen. Darren McDew, Commander of U.S. Transportation Command, and Mark Buzby, Administrator of the Maritime Administration. armedservices.house.gov 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on United States European Command with Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti. armed-services.senate.gov 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Global Leaders Forum: Jüri Luik, Minister of Defense of Estonia. csis.org 10:30 a.m. Subcommittee Hearing on Arlington National Cemetery – Preserving the Promise. armedservices.house.gov 11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting with Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant. ndia.org 5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Intelligence, Innovation, and Inclusion: A Conversation with Sue Gordon, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence. csis.org FRIDAY | MARCH 9 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Sanctions in the Trump Era – One Year In. atlanticouncil.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. National Technology and Industrial Base Integration: How to Overcome Barriers and Capitalize on Cooperation. csis.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy. csis.org 12 noon. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. US Counterterrorism: From Nixon to Trump – Key Challenges, Issues, and Responses. wilsoncenter.org 4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Return of Marco Polo’s World: A Book Launch and Reception with Bestselling Author Robert Kaplan. csis.org
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