Another day, another set of miserable polls for President Trump’s reelection campaign. From a CNBC survey that found presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead growing in six battleground states to a Reuter-Ipsos poll that suggested Trump was 13 points behind his rival in the national standings, the numbers have all been going in the wrong direction.
Yet for now, the Trump campaign’s plan is to say calm and carry on. “The polls have it wrong” is the official line. The president will be propelled to victory by a silent, hidden majority just like 2016.
The result is growing concern among allies and insiders who say that weeks of playing defense over coronavirus, police brutality, and now John Bolton’s book have handed the initiative to Biden.
A senior Republican source said there was growing worry that the lack of direction would doom down-ticket races. “There’s no ability to plan long term because Trump is not capable of thinking in a strategic way beyond next week,” he said. “What saved him in 2016 was that he wasn’t president, so there was no record, nothing you could pin him to.”
If things are to change, it could come in Tulsa. Trump’s controversial rally is seen by some insiders as the start of reclaiming the battlespace after months of the president being forced to react to events outside his control.
“Right now, because of all the environmental things going on, it is all about President Trump,” said a senior campaign adviser speaking on background to discuss strategy. “As the election approaches, it is going to become about Trump versus Biden, so what the president has been able to do in four years versus what Biden has done in 40.”
As the Democratic nomination race reached its climax this month, Trump allies boasted of having hundreds of pages of opposition research detailing Biden’s soft stance on China and his decades in Washington’s swamp. An “establishment oligarch” was the headline.
But by then, cities across the United States were swathed in tear gas amid bitter protests against police brutality. The research stayed in its binders, and the result was a 10 point drop in the president’s approval rating, according to Gallup. At 39%, it is now far short of the 50% usually needed for an incumbent’s reelection.
Campaign officials insist that Trump remains in a good position despite the setbacks and that things will change once they can turn the heat up on Biden. But pushing ahead with an arena rally against the advice of local health officials and with all the risks of a surge in COVID-19 cases looks like a sign of desperation as the campaign looks to get back on track, according to some observers.
“I think they are feeling the pressure,” said Jeanne Zaino, professor of political science at Iona College.
In the meantime, Biden has been able to hole up in his basement, operating what has been dubbed a “four corners” strategy by those old enough to remember basketball without a shot clock: Sit back, pass the ball back and forth, and let your opponent run around until he makes a fatal mistake.
The result has been frustration among Trump allies that the campaign has not been able to turn the conversation away from the daily news cycle.
Sam Nunberg, a senior adviser on the 2016 campaign, said that more needed to be done to broaden the president’s appeal.
“I don’t know why they aren’t spending massive amounts on TV every month destroying Biden or trying to change what the issues of the campaign are,” he said.
Getting the president back in front of a supportive audience and TV cameras is the start of that process. No one is better suited to take the fight to Biden than Trump himself, runs the argument inside the campaign.
And Ken Farnaso, deputy press secretary for the campaign, said 2016 had shown that polls routinely underestimated Trump’s support.
“President Trump’s America First agenda ushered in an economic renaissance, a renewed national security, strengthened our relationships with our allies, and kept our foes at bay,” he said. “Compared to Biden’s dismal track record of record-slow economic growth, China appeasement, and communist ideas, Americans know that it is a binary choice between a president who will fight for them versus a four-decadeslong Washington elitist who will bow down to global leaders.”
Some battleground GOP stalwarts share the view that pollsters are missing the full picture. They dismiss news headlines dominated by protesters as failing to reflect the people stuck at home in fear of stores and businesses being burned to the ground — people in the demographic groups that are more likely to turn out come November.
“I don’t give the polls any credibility right now, whether they are national or battleground,” said Rob Gleason, former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania. “I’ve been in politics for 50 years. I’ve seen polls not mean anything in the middle of the summer.”
