As the country inches closer to Election Day, voters are honing in on issues that may decide the fate of Congress and several state governments in November.
The Washington Examiner is tracking which issues are on the top of voters’ minds as they prepare to head to the polls, particularly in key battleground states that could bring a shift in power to the federal government. Specifically, we’re tracking how voters are researching our top five issues — abortion, crime, education, inflation, and taxes — and how these interests fluctuate as we get closer to Election Day.
MIDTERMS 2022: TRACKING THE ISSUES THAT MATTER TO VOTERS AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY
Below, you can track the interest in Vermont in each of our key issues on a rolling 30-day basis. The Washington Examiner will be updating this page as interests and voting concerns change.
Key races we’re watching in the state:
Vermont has a slew of races on its November ballot, ranging from the House and Senate all the way down to governor and attorney general.
The Senate race in Vermont has turned heads as Democratic candidate Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) vies to become the state’s second senator alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The seat is likely to lean Democratic and should Welch win, he would become only the second Democrat to be elected as a Vermont senator in the state’s history. Welch is set to face Republican Gerald Malloy.
Elsewhere on the ballot, Vermont’s lone House seat is also up for grabs after Welch opted not to run for reelection to instead run for the Senate. The race between Democrat Becca Balint and Republican Liam Madden is likely to lean Democratic, allowing the party to maintain its status as a blue state as it seeks to defend control of Congress in November. If elected, Balint will become the first woman Vermont has sent to Congress — making it the last state to do so.
Vermont voters will also have the opportunity to vote in the governor’s race as Republican Gov. Phil Scott seeks to defend his seat against Democratic challenger Brenda Siegel. Despite being a Democratic stronghold, Scott is favored to win reelection.
Education
Education emerged as the top-researched issue among Vermont voters early in September and remained the No. 1 priority for the duration of the month into late October, according to internet searches recorded and analyzed by Google Trends.
Searches related to education spiked several times over the last month, mirroring nationwide trends that saw the issue receive renewed interest in August and September — likely coinciding with the beginning of the school year. Other spikes in interest may be due in part to the announcement of President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness program on Aug. 24.
Biden’s student loan forgiveness program was praised by several Democratic lawmakers and candidates, including Welch who said the move provided “much-needed relief for hardworking Americans.” Roughly 77,000 Vermonters are eligible for student loan debt relief with an average balance of $37,000, according to the Department of Education.
Crime
Crime held steady as one of the top issues among Vermont voters over the last month, alternating as No. 2 and No. 3 throughout the month before landing as the second-most researched topic as of Oct. 17.
Crime has also emerged as a top voter priority nationwide, with 60% of voters saying violent crime is a “very important” issue, ranking behind only the economy and gun policy, which are not included in the Washington Examiner’s analysis.
Ericka Redic, the libertarian candidate for Vermont’s lone House seat, has sought to make crime a focal point of her campaign by hosting events and calling for more widespread support of law enforcement. A handful of other candidates have also brought attention to the issue including Gov. Scott, who released a public safety plan in late August seeking to address “a spike in criminal activity.”
Taxes
The issue of taxes had varied interest among Vermont voters over the last month, spiking only a handful of times in late September and early October before seeing renewed interest on Oct. 15. Internet searches related to taxes spiked on Sept. 20, 27th, and Oct. 6 in tandem with increased interest in education — likely having to do with Biden’s student loan forgiveness program.
The forgiveness plan described parameters for who would be eligible for student loan cancellation, noting borrowers will need to earn under $125,000 individually or $250,000 as a household.
The spike in internet searches on Oct. 6 was likely caused by the announcement that thousands of Vermonters would not be eligible for student loan forgiveness despite previous indications they would be. As many as 11,000 Vermonters were later deemed ineligible because their loans were taken out through the Federal Family Education Loans Program, meaning they are not federal loans that are forgiven through Biden’s program.
Abortion
Abortion emerged as one of the top issues during the midterm elections as Vermont is one of six states that will feature the issue on the November ballot.
The Vermont legislature previously passed a law in 2019 seeking to codify abortion access as a constitutional right. Under state law, the bill must pass through two consecutive legislatures, meaning the initiative will appear on the 2022 ballot — just five months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended nationwide access to the procedure.
If passed, the bill would do more than authorize access to abortion as it would also protect access to birth control. Current law in Vermont does not ban the procedure at any point in one’s pregnancy.
Inflation
Inflation did not appear to be a top issue on voters’ minds over the last 30 days, receiving a spike in interest on Oct. 13 before falling back to be the least-researched issue as of Oct. 17.
The spike in interest on Oct. 13 is likely due to the latest report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that was released on that day, the final report before Election Day. Inflation clocked in at 8.2% for the 12 months ending in September — higher than expected and defying the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Stocks immediately took a hit after the report was released. Futures of the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down some 500 points just minutes after the report’s release. The S&P 500 was off by about 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged nearly 3%.
The Inflation Reduction Act received mixed support from Vermont lawmakers and candidates, with some praising the move and others arguing it does not go far enough. Republicans have long focused on inflation as a key voter concern in the midterm election cycle, pointing to soaring inflation rates under Biden. However, inflation has become less of a concern after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, offering Democrats relief and posing a challenge to Republicans as they formulate new strategies.
